CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
STRL
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.
STRL has the edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
STRL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
STRL's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over STRL in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
STRL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.7x | $173 | -43% |
| Forward | 11x | $302 | — |
| Fair | 15x | $275 | -8.7% |
| Current | 17x | $302 | — |
| Expensive | 31x | $551 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
STRL's PE is in its fair range at 17x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 11x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over STRL on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
STRL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for STRL, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
STRL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $26.42 | +48% |
| Q3 2026 | $17.83 | +75% |
| Q2 2026 | $13.88 | +51% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.19 | +31% |
| Q4 2025 | $9.38 | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $10.19 | +72% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.19 | +77% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.55 | +78% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.27 | +86% |
STRL has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over STRL on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
STRL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.6B | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | +90% |
| Q1 2026 | $825.7M | +92% |
| Q4 2025 | $755.6M | +51% |
| Q3 2025 | $689M | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $614.5M | +5.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $430.9M | -2.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $498.8M | +2.6% |
STRL has the edge over CAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +1.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 19% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | +3.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 16% | +3.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 18% | +3.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | +4.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 13% | +3.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 12% | +1 points |
STRL's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 1.4 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
STRL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $53.3M | -17% |
| Q2 2026 | $112.4M | +56% |
| Q1 2026 | $145.9M | +118% |
| Q4 2025 | $159.7M | +0.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $64M | -54% |
| Q2 2025 | $72.1M | -22% |
| Q1 2025 | $67M | +147% |
| Q4 2024 | $158.6M | +20% |
STRL has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over STRL on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
STRL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -72K shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +111K shares |
| 3 years | -0.5% | -146K shares |
| 5 years | +6.4% | +1.9M shares |
| Available history | +15% | +4M shares |
STRL has 31M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $72M |
| Q2 2026 | $23M |
| Q1 2026 | $12.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $25.7M |
| Q3 2025 | $4.7M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $43.8M |
| Q4 2024 | $20M |
STRL spent $133M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 94% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over STRL on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
STRL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
STRL has more cash than debt.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
STRL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 33.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 7.5 | Oversold |
STRL's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 8 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
STRL PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | STRL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17x | 24x | 30% below |
| PE % | 55 | 58 | 3 pts below |
STRL has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over STRL on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
STRL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $404.8 | 26% below |
| 20 week MA | $507.3 | 41% below |
| 50 week MA | $509.4 | 41% below |
| 100 week MA | $368.5 | 18% below |
| 200 week MA | $229.2 | 32% above |
STRL has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 32% above its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over STRL on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
STRL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $14.4 | $19.3 | +34% |
| 2021 | $19.3 | $26.0 | +35% |
| 2022 | $26.0 | $32.7 | +26% |
| 2023 | $32.7 | $87.9 | +169% |
| 2024 | $87.9 | $172.5 | +96% |
| 2025 | $172.5 | $316.6 | +83% |
| 2026 YTD | $316.6 | $301.6 | -4.7% |
STRL has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's down 4.7% so far in 2026.