CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has a slight edge over SSD overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
SSD
Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.
SSD offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
SSD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
SSD's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
SSD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 17x | $155 | -22% |
| Forward | 21x | $199 | — |
| Fair | 22x | $202 | +1.4% |
| Current | 22x | $199 | — |
| Expensive | 24x | $226 | +14% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SSD has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over SSD on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and revenue expectations.
SSD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect SSD's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
SSD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.44 | +2.2% |
| Q3 2026 | $9.24 | +13% |
| Q2 2026 | $9.14 | +17% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.52 | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.24 | +8.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.21 | +8.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.84 | +0.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.68 | -3.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.60 | -8% |
SSD has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
SSD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $638.1M | +2.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $671.1M | +6.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $588M | +9.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $539.3M | +4.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $623.5M | +6.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $631.1M | +5.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $538.9M | +1.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $517.4M | +3.1% |
SSD's revenue has grown year over year for nine quarters in a row: $638M last quarter, up 2.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 22% | -0.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 25% | +3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 19% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 23% | +1.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 22% | +0.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 19% | +0.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +0.6 points |
SSD has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
SSD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $161.4M | +21% |
| Q2 2026 | $197.5M | +135% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.9M | +$60.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $119M | +97% |
| Q3 2025 | $133.8M | +130% |
| Q2 2025 | $84.2M | +19% |
| Q1 2025 | -$42.6M | -$11.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $60.3M | +$62.8M |
SSD has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
SSD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.8% | -333K shares |
| 1 year | -2.3% | -966K shares |
| 3 years | -5% | -2.1M shares |
| 5 years | -6.3% | -2.7M shares |
| Available history | -9.3% | -4.2M shares |
SSD has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $66.3M |
| Q2 2026 | $48.7M |
| Q1 2026 | $50M |
| Q4 2025 | $30M |
| Q3 2025 | $30M |
| Q2 2025 | $35M |
| Q1 2025 | $25M |
| Q4 2024 | $50M |
SSD spent $195M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 39% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over SSD on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
SSD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.3x | Very low |
SSD has more cash than debt.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
SSD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 59.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 69.0 | Neutral |
SSD's weekly RSI is 59 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 69 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
SSD PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | SSD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22x | 24x | 10% below |
| PE % | 45 | 58 | 13 pts below |
SSD has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
SSD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $183.9 | 8.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $186.0 | 6.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $184.1 | 8% above |
| 100 week MA | $175.4 | 13% above |
| 200 week MA | $167.9 | 18% above |
SSD has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
SSD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $80.5 | $92.9 | +15% |
| 2021 | $92.9 | $134.0 | +44% |
| 2022 | $134.0 | $89.2 | -33% |
| 2023 | $89.2 | $198.0 | +122% |
| 2024 | $198.0 | $166.8 | -16% |
| 2025 | $166.8 | $167.2 | +0.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $167.2 | $198.8 | +19% |
SSD has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.