CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over SPCE overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
SPCE
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.
SPCE offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
SPCE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Under pressure | |
| Unavailable |
SPCE's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
SPCE PE Valuation
SPCE has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
SPCE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect SPCE's losses to shrink, with revenue growing.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over SPCE on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
SPCE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.20 | +$9.36 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.90 | +$10.23 |
| Q1 2026 | -$3.87 | +$12.15 |
| Q4 2025 | -$5.44 | +$13.20 |
| Q3 2025 | -$11.56 | +$4.06 |
| Q2 2025 | -$13.13 | +$5.43 |
| Q1 2025 | -$16.02 | +$7.38 |
| Q4 2024 | -$18.64 | +$11.16 |
SPCE is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.20 per share over the past year, against $42.60 at its worst in mid-2023.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over SPCE on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over SPCE on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SPCE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $427K | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $134K | -67% |
| Q1 2026 | $227K | -51% |
| Q4 2025 | $312K | -27% |
| Q3 2025 | $365K | -9.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $406K | -90% |
| Q1 2025 | $461K | -77% |
| Q4 2024 | $429K | -85% |
SPCE's revenue is recovering but still below its 2024 peak: $427,000 last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -13816% | +4312 points |
| Q2 2026 | -48452% | -31225 points |
| Q1 2026 | -28895% | -9709 points |
| Q4 2025 | -19483% | -380 points |
| Q3 2025 | -18128% | +2203 points |
| Q2 2025 | -17227% | -14815 points |
| Q1 2025 | -19186% | -13586 points |
| Q4 2024 | -19103% | -15035 points |
SPCE's operating margin was −13816% last quarter, up 4312 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over SPCE on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
SPCE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$99.1M | +$8.6M |
| Q2 2026 | -$90.7M | +$23.1M |
| Q1 2026 | -$93.3M | +$28.7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$94.6M | +$22.1M |
| Q3 2025 | -$107.8M | +$10.2M |
| Q2 2025 | -$113.8M | -$260K |
| Q1 2025 | -$122M | +$4.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$116.7M | -$3.1M |
SPCE has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$378M over the past year, against −$460M the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over SPCE on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
SPCE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +37% | +40.8M shares |
| 1 year | +232% | +106M shares |
| 3 years | +989% | +138M shares |
| 5 years | +1195% | +140M shares |
| Available history | +1460% | +142M shares |
SPCE has 152M diluted shares, up 232% from a year ago.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has more cash than debt.
SPCE Net Leverage
SPCE's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
SPCE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 46.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 33.7 | Neutral |
SPCE's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 34 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
SPCE PE vs Industrials Sector
SPCE has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over SPCE on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
SPCE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $2.75 | 2.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $2.82 | 5.3% below |
| 50 week MA | $2.99 | 11% below |
| 100 week MA | $3.38 | 21% below |
| 200 week MA | $23.0 | 88% below |
SPCE is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 88% below its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over SPCE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
SPCE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $231.2 | $517.0 | +124% |
| 2021 | $517.0 | $290.6 | -44% |
| 2022 | $290.6 | $73.0 | -75% |
| 2023 | $73.0 | $49.0 | -33% |
| 2024 | $49.0 | $6.38 | -87% |
| 2025 | $6.38 | $3.16 | -50% |
| 2026 YTD | $3.16 | $2.67 | -16% |
SPCE has finished five years in a row lower, and it's down 16% so far in 2026.