CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over SAIA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
SAIA
Saia, Inc.
SAIA offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
SAIA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
SAIA's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
SAIA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 21x | $217 | -35% |
| Forward | 24x | $331 | — |
| Fair | 31x | $327 | -1.3% |
| Current | 31x | $331 | — |
| Expensive | 39x | $415 | +25% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SAIA has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
SAIA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for SAIA, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over SAIA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
SAIA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.82 | +31% |
| Q3 2026 | $10.55 | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.36 | -4.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.52 | -21% |
| Q4 2025 | $9.52 | -30% |
| Q3 2025 | $10.59 | -24% |
| Q2 2025 | $10.83 | -24% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.99 | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.51 | +1.9% |
SAIA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $10.55 over the past year, against $14.20 in mid-2024.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over SAIA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SAIA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $982.5M | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $956.5M | +17% |
| Q1 2026 | $806.2M | +2.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $790M | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $839.6M | -0.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $817.1M | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $787.6M | +4.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $789M | +5% |
SAIA's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $982M last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12% | -1.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 13% | +0.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.3% | -0.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8.1% | -4.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 12% | -4.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.9% | -6.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 13% | -2.1 points |
SAIA's operating margin was 12% last quarter, down 1.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
SAIA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $111.1M | +27% |
| Q2 2026 | $56.7M | +$60.6M |
| Q1 2026 | $73.5M | +$167.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $37.5M | +$41M |
| Q3 2025 | $87.6M | +$99.2M |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.9M | +$90.1M |
| Q1 2025 | -$93.8M | +$256.9M |
| Q4 2024 | -$3.5M | -106% |
SAIA has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over SAIA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
SAIA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -18K shares |
| 1 year | +0.1% | +25K shares |
| 3 years | +0.1% | +36K shares |
| 5 years | +0.4% | +102K shares |
| Available history | +1.4% | +380K shares |
SAIA has 27M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over SAIA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
SAIA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.3x | Very low |
SAIA has more cash than debt.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
SAIA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 19.1 | Oversold |
SAIA's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over SAIA on valuation relative to its sector.
SAIA PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | SAIA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 31x | 24x | 30% above |
| PE % | 52 | 58 | 6 pts below |
SAIA is trading at 31x earnings, a 30% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over SAIA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
SAIA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $335.8 | 1.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $362.3 | 8.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $379.9 | 13% below |
| 100 week MA | $357.1 | 7.3% below |
| 200 week MA | $384.1 | 14% below |
SAIA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 14% below its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over SAIA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
SAIA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $92.4 | $185.5 | +101% |
| 2021 | $185.5 | $323.5 | +74% |
| 2022 | $323.5 | $214.4 | -34% |
| 2023 | $214.4 | $438.2 | +104% |
| 2024 | $438.2 | $475.3 | +8.5% |
| 2025 | $475.3 | $331.0 | -30% |
| 2026 YTD | $331.0 | $331.0 | 0% |
SAIA has finished higher in four of the last six years, three of them by more than 50%. It's roughly flat so far in 2026.