CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over RXO overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger modeled upside.
RXO
RXO, Inc.
RXO offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
RXO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak |
RXO's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
RXO PE Valuation
RXO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 54x next year's earnings.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
RXO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect RXO to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over RXO on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
RXO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.52 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.52 | -$0.04 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.62 | +$1.59 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.62 | +$1.60 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.59 | +$1.58 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.48 | +$1.51 |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.21 | -$2.02 |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.22 | -$2.12 |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.17 | -7333% |
RXO is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.52 per share over the past year, against $2.22 at its worst in early 2025.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over RXO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RXO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.9B | +32% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.8B | +25% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | -0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B | -12% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.4B | +37% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +53% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.4B | +57% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.7B | +70% |
RXO has the edge over CAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.9% | +1.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1% | +0.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | -2% | +0.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | -2.9% | -1.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | -0.5% | +1.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 0% | 0 points |
| Q1 2025 | -2.1% | -0.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | -1.4% | -2.9 points |
RXO's operating margin was 0.9% last quarter, up 1.4 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over RXO on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RXO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $12M | +33% |
| Q2 2026 | -$52M | -678% |
| Q1 2026 | -$24M | -$7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$9M | +$10M |
| Q3 2025 | $9M | +$27M |
| Q2 2025 | $9M | +$25M |
| Q1 2025 | -$17M | -$13M |
| Q4 2024 | -$19M | -2000% |
RXO's free cash flow was −$73M over the past year, against −$18M the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over RXO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
RXO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1.4% | +2.4M shares |
| 1 year | +2% | +3.4M shares |
| 3 years | +47% | +55M shares |
| 5 years | +49% | +56.9M shares |
RXO has 172M diluted shares, up 2% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over RXO on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
RXO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 16.0x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 12.9x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 10.5x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 6.3x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 9.2x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 13.4x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 10.7x | High |
RXO's net debt is about 8.4 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 6.3 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
RXO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 60.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 85.5 | Overbought |
RXO's weekly RSI is 61 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 85 (overbought).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
RXO PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | RXO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 24x | — |
RXO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
RXO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $26.6 | 6.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $24.6 | 15% above |
| 50 week MA | $20.4 | 38% above |
| 100 week MA | $18.9 | 49% above |
| 200 week MA | $20.6 | 37% above |
RXO has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
RXO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $21.5 | $16.3 | -24% |
| 2023 | $16.3 | $23.3 | +43% |
| 2024 | $23.3 | $24.4 | +4.7% |
| 2025 | $24.4 | $12.7 | -48% |
| 2026 YTD | $12.7 | $28.3 | +123% |
RXO has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.