CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over RSG overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
RSG
Republic Services, Inc.
RSG offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
RSG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
RSG's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
RSG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 28x | $206 | -19% |
| Fair | 32x | $230 | -9.3% |
| Forward | 33x | $253 | — |
| Expensive | 35x | $252 | -0.6% |
| Current | 35x | $253 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
RSG has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
RSG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for RSG, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
RSG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $7.75 | +7.2% |
| Q3 2026 | $7.23 | +7.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.06 | +4.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.97 | +5.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.85 | +5.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.72 | +7.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.76 | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.63 | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.49 | +19% |
RSG has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over RSG on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RSG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.2B | +7.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.1B | +4% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.7B | +2.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.7B | +2% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.8B | +3.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.9B | +4.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.6B | +3.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.6B | +5.4% |
RSG's revenue has grown year over year for 23 quarters in a row: $5.2B last quarter, up 7.8% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 18% | +0.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 18% | +0.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | +0.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 17% | -0.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -0.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 18% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | +1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 17% | +1.4 points |
RSG's operating margin was 18% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
RSG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $644M | -13% |
| Q2 2026 | $761M | +8.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $751M | +33% |
| Q4 2025 | $404M | -23% |
| Q3 2025 | $737M | +34% |
| Q2 2025 | $702M | +0.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $566M | +91% |
| Q4 2024 | $524.4M | +50% |
RSG has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over RSG on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
RSG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -1.1M shares |
| 1 year | -1.8% | -5.5M shares |
| 3 years | -3.2% | -10.1M shares |
| 5 years | -4% | -12.9M shares |
| Available history | -4.8% | -15.5M shares |
RSG has 307M diluted shares, down 1.8% from a year ago, with $1.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $197M |
| Q2 2026 | $367M |
| Q1 2026 | $292M |
| Q4 2025 | $271M |
| Q3 2025 | $540M |
| Q2 2025 | $4M |
| Q1 2025 | $55M |
| Q4 2024 | $161.3M |
RSG spent $1.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 48% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over RSG on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
RSG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.6x | Moderate |
RSG's net debt is about 2.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
RSG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 71.9 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 90.0 | Overbought |
RSG's weekly RSI is 72 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 90 (overbought).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over RSG on valuation relative to its sector.
RSG PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | RSG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 35x | 24x | 45% above |
| PE % | 85 | 58 | 27 pts above |
RSG is trading at 35x earnings, a 45% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
RSG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $231.8 | 9.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $223.8 | 13% above |
| 50 week MA | $218.0 | 16% above |
| 100 week MA | $224.4 | 13% above |
| 200 week MA | $196.8 | 29% above |
RSG has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
RSG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $90.2 | $95.6 | +6% |
| 2021 | $95.6 | $135.4 | +42% |
| 2022 | $135.4 | $130.8 | -3.4% |
| 2023 | $130.8 | $164.9 | +26% |
| 2024 | $164.9 | $202.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $202.9 | $213.4 | +5.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $213.4 | $253.0 | +19% |
RSG has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.