CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over RAIL overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
RAIL
FreightCar America, Inc.
RAIL offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
RAIL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Weak | |
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
RAIL's cash flow is currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable, but its revenue and profitability are under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
RAIL PE Valuation
RAIL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 8.2x next year's earnings.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
RAIL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect RAIL to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over RAIL on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
RAIL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.65 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.33 | -113% |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.56 | +$0.27 |
| Q1 2026 | $0.72 | +$1.78 |
| Q4 2025 | $1.09 | +$4.21 |
| Q3 2025 | $2.51 | +$6.74 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.83 | -$0.14 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.06 | +$0.47 |
| Q4 2024 | -$3.12 | -$1.94 |
RAIL has swung to a loss: it lost $0.33 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over RAIL on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over RAIL on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RAIL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $76.5M | -52% |
| Q2 2026 | $113.1M | -4.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $64.3M | -33% |
| Q4 2025 | $125.6M | -8.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $160.5M | +42% |
| Q2 2025 | $118.6M | -20% |
| Q1 2025 | $96.3M | -40% |
| Q4 2024 | $137.7M | +8.8% |
RAIL's revenue has slid since its 2024 peak: $76M last quarter, down 52% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -4% | -13 points |
| Q2 2026 | -3.8% | -10 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.9% | -4.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 6.2% | -2.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.1% | +1.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 6.5% | -2.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 4% | +1.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8.4% | +8.2 points |
RAIL's operating margin was −4% last quarter, down 13 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
RAIL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $25M | +1014% |
| Q2 2026 | $11.3M | +43% |
| Q1 2026 | -$4.5M | -136% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.8M | +91% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.2M | -61% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.9M | -86% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.5M | +$38.8M |
| Q4 2024 | $4.6M | -83% |
RAIL still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2024 peak: $41M over the past year.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over RAIL on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
RAIL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +10% | +3.3M shares |
| 1 year | +5.4% | +1.8M shares |
| 3 years | +37% | +9.5M shares |
| 5 years | +184% | +22.8M shares |
RAIL has 35M diluted shares, up 5.4% from a year ago.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over RAIL on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
RAIL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.5x | Healthy |
RAIL's net debt is about 1.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from a year a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
RAIL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.5 | Oversold |
RAIL's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
RAIL PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | RAIL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 24x | — |
RAIL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over RAIL on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RAIL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $5.53 | 3.8% below |
| 20 week MA | $6.81 | 22% below |
| 50 week MA | $8.63 | 38% below |
| 100 week MA | $8.68 | 39% below |
| 200 week MA | $6.54 | 19% below |
RAIL is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 19% below its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over RAIL on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
RAIL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $2.21 | $2.57 | +16% |
| 2021 | $2.57 | $3.93 | +53% |
| 2022 | $3.93 | $3.25 | -17% |
| 2023 | $3.25 | $2.70 | -17% |
| 2024 | $2.70 | $9.23 | +242% |
| 2025 | $9.23 | $11.5 | +25% |
| 2026 YTD | $11.5 | $5.32 | -54% |
RAIL is down 54% so far in 2026, after finishing higher in four of the previous six years.