CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over QUAD overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
QUAD
Quad/Graphics, Inc.
QUAD offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
QUAD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Stable |
QUAD's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
QUAD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 5.7x | $7.54 | — |
| Cheap | 9.2x | $4.86 | -36% |
| Fair | 14x | $7.20 | -4.5% |
| Current | 14x | $7.54 | — |
| Expensive | 16x | $8.49 | +13% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
QUAD has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over QUAD on the outlook, with more favorable revenue and profitability expectations.
QUAD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect QUAD's earnings to grow, with its revenue and profitability holding steady.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
QUAD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.32 | +148% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.53 | +23% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.63 | +$0.93 |
| Q1 2026 | $0.56 | +$0.92 |
| Q4 2025 | $0.54 | +$1.61 |
| Q3 2025 | $0.43 | +$2.07 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.30 | +$0.88 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.36 | +$0.88 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.07 | +$0.07 |
QUAD has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over QUAD on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over QUAD on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
QUAD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $586.7M | -0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $577.5M | +1% |
| Q1 2026 | $581M | -7.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $630.6M | -11% |
| Q3 2025 | $588M | -13% |
| Q2 2025 | $571.9M | -9.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $629.4M | -3.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $708.4M | -10% |
QUAD's revenue has slid since its 2019 peak: $587M last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.4% | -2.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 2.6% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3% | -0.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.9% | +3.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 4.5% | +5.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.4% | 0 points |
| Q1 2025 | 3.1% | +4.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2.8% | +2.3 points |
QUAD's operating margin was 2.4% last quarter, down 2.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over QUAD on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
QUAD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$33.8M | -$13.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $40.8M | +19% |
| Q1 2026 | -$107M | -$6.7M |
| Q4 2025 | $137.2M | -6.9% |
| Q3 2025 | -$20.6M | -$10.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $34.4M | +$46.1M |
| Q1 2025 | -$100.3M | -$30.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $147.3M | +55% |
QUAD usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$34M, but it generated $37M over the past year.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over QUAD on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
QUAD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.8% | +400K shares |
| 1 year | +1.4% | +700K shares |
| 3 years | +5% | +2.4M shares |
| 5 years | -5.1% | -2.7M shares |
| Available history | +0.8% | +400K shares |
QUAD has 50M diluted shares, up 1.4% from a year ago, despite $9M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $2.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $200,000 |
| Q3 2025 | $200,000 |
| Q2 2025 | $4.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.3M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
QUAD spent $9M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 10% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has more cash than debt.
QUAD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2022 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q4 2021 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q3 2021 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q2 2021 | 4.0x | Elevated |
| Q1 2021 | 5.5x | High |
| Q4 2020 | 6.4x | High |
| Q3 2020 | 4.1x | High |
| Q2 2020 | 4.9x | High |
QUAD's net debt is about 2.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 5.5 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
QUAD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 8.1 | Oversold |
QUAD's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 8 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
QUAD PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | QUAD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14x | 24x | 41% below |
| PE % | 55 | 58 | 3 pts below |
QUAD has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
QUAD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $8.68 | 13% below |
| 20 week MA | $9.21 | 18% below |
| 50 week MA | $7.84 | 3.8% below |
| 100 week MA | $6.90 | 9.3% above |
| 200 week MA | $5.95 | 27% above |
QUAD has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 27% above its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
QUAD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $4.41 | $3.52 | -20% |
| 2021 | $3.52 | $3.97 | +13% |
| 2022 | $3.97 | $3.71 | -6.5% |
| 2023 | $3.71 | $5.42 | +46% |
| 2024 | $5.42 | $7.05 | +30% |
| 2025 | $7.05 | $6.37 | -9.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $6.37 | $7.54 | +18% |
QUAD has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.