CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
PRG
PROG Holdings, Inc.
PRG has a slight edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
PRG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
PRG's revenue and cash flow are currently healthy, and its profitability and balance sheet are stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
PRG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 7.3x | $37.67 | — |
| Cheap | 7.4x | $27.47 | -27% |
| Fair | 10x | $38.50 | +2.2% |
| Current | 10x | $37.67 | — |
| Expensive | 14x | $50.84 | +35% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PRG has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
PRG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for PRG, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
PRG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.15 | +39% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.70 | -5.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.61 | -29% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.65 | -25% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.59 | -21% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.93 | +8.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.05 | +106% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.87 | +97% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.53 | +52% |
PRG has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over PRG on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
PRG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $725.8M | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $719.7M | +19% |
| Q1 2026 | $742.7M | +8.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $525.4M | -16% |
| Q3 2025 | $595.1M | -1.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $604.7M | +2.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $684.1M | +6.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $623.3M | +8% |
PRG's revenue is recovering but still below its 2020 peak: $726M last quarter, up 22% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.1% | +0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 9.1% | -0.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.8% | +0.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 6.9% | -1.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 10% | +0.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.2% | +2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8.1% | +1.9 points |
PRG's operating margin was 9.1% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
PRG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $103.4M | -2.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $101.2M | +49% |
| Q1 2026 | $168.6M | -19% |
| Q4 2025 | -$57.5M | +$29.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $106.5M | +257% |
| Q2 2025 | $68M | +27% |
| Q1 2025 | $208M | +56% |
| Q4 2024 | -$86.8M | +$4.2M |
PRG has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over PRG on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
PRG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.5% | -184K shares |
| 1 year | +0.2% | +69K shares |
| 3 years | -12% | -5.6M shares |
| 5 years | -39% | -25.8M shares |
| Available history | -29% | -16.2M shares |
PRG has 41M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $36.7M |
| Q2 2026 | $10.2M |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $25.7M |
| Q1 2025 | $26.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $40.5M |
PRG spent $47M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 49% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over PRG on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
PRG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2020 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q1 2020 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q4 2019 | 0.9x | Very low |
PRG's net debt is about 2.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.1 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
PRG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 53.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.6 | Neutral |
PRG's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
PRG PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | PRG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 24x | 58% below |
| PE % | 47 | 58 | 11 pts below |
PRG has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
PRG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $33.2 | 13% above |
| 20 week MA | $38.2 | 1.3% below |
| 50 week MA | $35.2 | 7% above |
| 100 week MA | $33.6 | 12% above |
| 200 week MA | $33.8 | 11% above |
PRG has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
PRG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $56.3 | $54.0 | -4.1% |
| 2021 | $54.0 | $45.0 | -17% |
| 2022 | $45.0 | $17.2 | -62% |
| 2023 | $17.2 | $30.9 | +80% |
| 2024 | $30.9 | $42.2 | +36% |
| 2025 | $42.2 | $30.5 | -28% |
| 2026 YTD | $30.5 | $37.7 | +24% |
PRG has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.