CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
PAYX
Paychex, Inc.
PAYX has the edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
PAYX Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
PAYX's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
PAYX PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 19x | $115 | — |
| Current | 23x | $115 | — |
| Cheap | 24x | $123 | +7.1% |
| Fair | 28x | $144 | +25% |
| Expensive | 33x | $168 | +46% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PAYX has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
PAYX Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for PAYX, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
PAYX Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.06 | +20% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.04 | +13% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.89 | +6.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.55 | -5.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.42 | -6.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.46 | -4.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.58 | -1.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.80 | +4.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.75 | +5.6% |
PAYX has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
PAYX Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.6B | +5.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.6B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.5B | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +10% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +4.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.3B | +4.7% |
PAYX's revenue has grown year over year for 22 quarters in a row: $1.6B last quarter, up 5.9% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 38% | +2.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 38% | +7.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 44% | -2.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 37% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 35% | -6.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 30% | -7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 41% | +0.6 points |
PAYX has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
PAYX Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $357.4M | -46% |
| Q2 2026 | $515M | +82% |
| Q1 2026 | $761.5M | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $382.8M | +54% |
| Q3 2025 | $662.5M | +30% |
| Q2 2025 | $283.3M | +57% |
| Q1 2025 | $667.3M | +5.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $248M | -19% |
PAYX has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over PAYX on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
PAYX Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -3.4M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -5.3M shares |
| 3 years | -1.7% | -6.2M shares |
| 5 years | -1.7% | -6.2M shares |
| Available history | -1.1% | -4M shares |
PAYX has 357M diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago, with $451M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $249.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $75M |
| Q4 2025 | $126.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $160.1M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $500,000 |
PAYX spent $451M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 181% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over PAYX on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
PAYX Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
PAYX's net debt is about 1.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 1.7 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
PAYX Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 53.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 56.0 | Neutral |
PAYX's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 56 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
PAYX PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | PAYX | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23x | 24x | 5.1% below |
| PE % | 11 | 58 | 47 pts below |
PAYX has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
PAYX Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $109.8 | 4.9% above |
| 20 week MA | $114.2 | 0.8% above |
| 50 week MA | $105.4 | 9.3% above |
| 100 week MA | $122.9 | 6.2% below |
| 200 week MA | $122.2 | 5.7% below |
PAYX has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over PAYX on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
PAYX Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $85.1 | $94.7 | +11% |
| 2021 | $94.7 | $134.2 | +42% |
| 2022 | $134.2 | $116.0 | -14% |
| 2023 | $116.0 | $119.1 | +2.7% |
| 2024 | $119.1 | $141.3 | +19% |
| 2025 | $141.3 | $114.2 | -19% |
| 2026 YTD | $114.2 | $115.2 | +0.9% |
PAYX has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's up 0.9% so far in 2026.