CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over ORN overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
ORN
Orion Group Holdings, Inc.
ORN's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ORN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure |
ORN's revenue is currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over ORN in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
ORN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 8.7x | $1.40 | -82% |
| Fair | 21x | $3.30 | -57% |
| Forward | 27x | $7.65 | — |
| Current | 48x | $7.65 | — |
| Expensive | 85x | $13.65 | +78% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ORN's PE is in its expensive range at 48x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 27x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over ORN on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
ORN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ORN, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
ORN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.28 | +76% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.16 | -43% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.10 | -69% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.22 | +120% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.06 | +$0.11 |
| Q3 2025 | $0.28 | +$0.68 |
| Q2 2025 | $0.32 | +$0.86 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.10 | +$0.45 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.05 | +$0.50 |
ORN has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over ORN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ORN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $256.2M | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $221.9M | +8.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $216.3M | +15% |
| Q4 2025 | $233.2M | +7.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $225.1M | -0.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $205.3M | +6.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $188.7M | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $216.9M | +7.6% |
ORN's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $256M last quarter, up 14% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.3% | +1 points |
| Q2 2026 | -0.6% | -2.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.4% | -0.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.1% | -2.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.4% | -1.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1.7% | +3.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.4% | +2.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 4.4% | +4.7 points |
ORN's operating margin was 3.3% last quarter, up 1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over ORN on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
ORN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$6M | -143% |
| Q2 2026 | -$29.2M | -$16.5M |
| Q1 2026 | -$3.7M | +$8.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $454K | -95% |
| Q3 2025 | $13.9M | -58% |
| Q2 2025 | -$12.7M | +$7.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$12.5M | +$12.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $9.9M | -77% |
ORN has burned cash in most quarters: −$38M over the past year, against −$1M the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over ORN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
ORN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +39.6K shares |
| 1 year | +1.8% | +731K shares |
| 3 years | +25% | +8.1M shares |
| 5 years | +31% | +9.5M shares |
| Available history | +38% | +11.2M shares |
ORN has 41M diluted shares, up 1.8% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | $164,000 |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over ORN on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ORN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
ORN's net debt is about 3.4 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from less than a year a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
ORN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 13.2 | Oversold |
ORN's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over ORN on valuation relative to its sector.
ORN PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | ORN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 48x | 24x | 99% above |
| PE % | 67 | 58 | 9 pts above |
ORN is trading at 48x earnings, a 99% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over ORN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ORN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $8.44 | 9.4% below |
| 20 week MA | $9.89 | 23% below |
| 50 week MA | $11.5 | 33% below |
| 100 week MA | $9.65 | 21% below |
| 200 week MA | $7.62 | 0.4% above |
ORN has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 0.4% above its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over ORN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
ORN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $5.00 | $4.94 | -1.2% |
| 2021 | $4.94 | $3.78 | -23% |
| 2022 | $3.78 | $2.29 | -39% |
| 2023 | $2.29 | $4.94 | +116% |
| 2024 | $4.94 | $7.53 | +52% |
| 2025 | $7.53 | $10.4 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $10.4 | $7.65 | -27% |
ORN has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 27% so far in 2026.