CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
ODFL
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.
ODFL has the edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ODFL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
ODFL's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
ODFL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 26x | $172 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $150 | -12% |
| Current | 31x | $172 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $188 | +9.7% |
| Expensive | 40x | $225 | +31% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ODFL has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ODFL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ODFL, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over ODFL on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ODFL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.62 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.57 | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.20 | +1.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.79 | -10% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.84 | -12% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.97 | -13% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.12 | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.33 | -6.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.48 | -2.7% |
ODFL earned $5.57 per share over the past year, up 12% from the year before.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over ODFL on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ODFL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.6B | +13% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B | +10% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.3B | -2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | -5.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.4B | -4.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | -6.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.4B | -5.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.4B | -7.3% |
ODFL's revenue grew through 2023 and has held roughly level since: $1.6B last quarter, up 13% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 28% | +2.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 30% | +4.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 24% | -0.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 23% | -0.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 26% | -1.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 25% | -2.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 25% | -1.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 24% | -4 points |
ODFL has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
ODFL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $402.4M | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $195.7M | +98% |
| Q1 2026 | $311.1M | +25% |
| Q4 2025 | $264.5M | +15% |
| Q3 2025 | $343.5M | +69% |
| Q2 2025 | $98.7M | -34% |
| Q1 2025 | $248.4M | -18% |
| Q4 2024 | $230.1M | -30% |
ODFL has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over ODFL on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
ODFL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -593K shares |
| 1 year | -1.3% | -2.8M shares |
| 3 years | -5.3% | -11.5M shares |
| 5 years | -10% | -24.2M shares |
| Available history | -14% | -33.1M shares |
ODFL has 208M diluted shares, down 1.3% from a year ago, with $526M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $160.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $151.6M |
| Q1 2026 | $88.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $124.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $180.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $223.5M |
| Q1 2025 | $201.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $182.5M |
ODFL spent $526M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 33% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over ODFL on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ODFL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
ODFL has more cash than debt.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
ODFL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 39.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 8.0 | Oversold |
ODFL's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 8 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over ODFL on valuation relative to its sector.
ODFL PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | ODFL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 31x | 24x | 28% above |
| PE % | 35 | 58 | 23 pts below |
ODFL is trading at 31x earnings, a 28% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over ODFL on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ODFL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $176.9 | 3% below |
| 20 week MA | $195.5 | 12% below |
| 50 week MA | $195.2 | 12% below |
| 100 week MA | $177.6 | 3.3% below |
| 200 week MA | $184.6 | 7% below |
ODFL is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 7% below its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
ODFL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $63.0 | $99.1 | +57% |
| 2021 | $99.1 | $174.2 | +76% |
| 2022 | $174.2 | $143.1 | -18% |
| 2023 | $143.1 | $202.7 | +42% |
| 2024 | $202.7 | $180.2 | -11% |
| 2025 | $180.2 | $159.5 | -12% |
| 2026 YTD | $159.5 | $171.7 | +7.6% |
ODFL has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.