CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over NSSC overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
NSSC
Napco Security Technologies, Inc.
NSSC offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
NSSC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
NSSC's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
NSSC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 19x | $30.34 | — |
| Current | 25x | $30.34 | — |
| Cheap | 28x | $33.60 | +11% |
| Fair | 37x | $45.07 | +49% |
| Expensive | 55x | $66.88 | +120% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NSSC has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NSSC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for NSSC, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
NSSC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.60 | +31% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.22 | -0.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.20 | +0.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.04 | -15% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.33 | +2.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.23 | -9.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.19 | -11% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.22 | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.30 | +12% |
NSSC has the edge over CAT on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NSSC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $50M | +1.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $55.8M | +10% |
| Q1 2026 | $49.2M | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $48.2M | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $49.2M | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $50.7M | +0.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $44M | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $42.9M | -9.7% |
NSSC's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $50M last quarter, up 1.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 28% | +0.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 33% | +9.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | -2.4% | -28 points |
| Q4 2025 | 31% | +4.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 28% | +0.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 24% | -3.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 25% | -4.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 26% | -3 points |
NSSC has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
NSSC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.3M | -80% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.2M | +20% |
| Q1 2026 | $16M | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | $14.5M | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.4M | +0.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $14.4M | +4.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $13.3M | +11% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.4M | +75% |
NSSC has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over NSSC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
NSSC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -10K shares |
| 1 year | 0% | +16K shares |
| 3 years | -3.2% | -1.2M shares |
| 5 years | -2.6% | -963K shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -1.2M shares |
NSSC has 36M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $18.8M |
| Q4 2024 | $10.7M |
| Q3 2024 | $7.3M |
| Q2 2020 | $104,000 |
| Q1 2020 | $2.4M |
| Q4 2019 | — |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has more cash than debt.
NSSC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -2.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
NSSC has the edge over CAT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
NSSC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 36.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 12.9 | Oversold |
NSSC's weekly RSI is 36 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over NSSC on valuation relative to its sector.
NSSC PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | NSSC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25x | 24x | 3.3% above |
| PE % | 10 | 58 | 48 pts below |
NSSC is trading at 25x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over NSSC on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NSSC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $35.3 | 14% below |
| 20 week MA | $36.4 | 17% below |
| 50 week MA | $39.1 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $35.7 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.4 | 17% below |
NSSC is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 17% below its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over NSSC on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NSSC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $14.8 | $13.3 | -9.8% |
| 2021 | $13.3 | $24.9 | +87% |
| 2022 | $24.9 | $26.4 | +5.9% |
| 2023 | $26.4 | $34.3 | +30% |
| 2024 | $34.3 | $35.5 | +3.6% |
| 2025 | $35.5 | $42.8 | +20% |
| 2026 YTD | $42.8 | $30.3 | -29% |
NSSC has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's down 29% so far in 2026.