CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over NAT overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
NAT
Nordic American Tankers Limited
NAT offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
NAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
NAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
NAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.1x | $4.10 | -39% |
| Forward | 9.7x | $6.72 | — |
| Fair | 11x | $6.51 | -3.1% |
| Current | 12x | $6.72 | — |
| Expensive | 52x | $30.15 | +349% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NAT has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over NAT on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.
NAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Decline | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect NAT's revenue to grow, but its earnings and profitability to decline.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over NAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.69 | +20% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.58 | +867% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.26 | +53% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.06 | -73% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.01 | -97% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.06 | -79% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.17 | -47% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.22 | -53% |
| Q3 2024 | $0.29 | -48% |
NAT earned $0.58 per share over the past year, about 10 times what it earned the year before.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over NAT on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $104.7M | +57% |
| Q1 2026 | $106.5M | +64% |
| Q4 2025 | $85.9M | +15% |
| Q3 2025 | $75M | -8.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $66.7M | -32% |
| Q1 2025 | $64.8M | -32% |
| Q4 2024 | $74.4M | +26% |
| Q3 2024 | $82.2M | +4.8% |
NAT's revenue is recovering but still below its 2020 peak: $105M last quarter, up 57% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 39% | +39 points |
| Q1 2026 | 36% | +34 points |
| Q4 2025 | 24% | +12 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.1% | -11 points |
| Q2 2025 | 0.7% | -29 points |
| Q1 2025 | 2.1% | -22 points |
| Q4 2024 | 12% | -30 points |
| Q3 2024 | 20% | +1.3 points |
NAT has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
NAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $68.8M | +$202.8M |
| Q1 2026 | $29.7M | +$30.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $14.7M | -24% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.9M | -89% |
| Q2 2025 | -$134M | -534% |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.1M | -103% |
| Q4 2024 | $19.4M | +$79.2M |
| Q3 2024 | $34.4M | +28% |
NAT's free cash flow has turned positive again: $117M over the past year, against −$81M the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over NAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
NAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | 0% | -- |
| 3 years | +1.4% | +3M shares |
| 5 years | +36% | +56.2M shares |
| Available history | +49% | +69.4M shares |
NAT has 212M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
NAT hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over NAT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q3 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
NAT's net debt is about 1.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.4 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
NAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 49.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 37.8 | Neutral |
NAT's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 38 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
NAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | NAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 24x | 52% below |
| PE % | 54 | 58 | 4 pts below |
NAT has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
NAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $7.68 | 13% below |
| 20 week MA | $7.12 | 5.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $5.81 | 16% above |
| 100 week MA | $4.34 | 55% above |
| 200 week MA | $4.10 | 64% above |
NAT has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
NAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $4.82 | $3.16 | -34% |
| 2021 | $3.16 | $1.79 | -43% |
| 2022 | $1.79 | $3.18 | +78% |
| 2023 | $3.18 | $4.20 | +32% |
| 2024 | $4.20 | $2.47 | -41% |
| 2025 | $2.47 | $3.43 | +39% |
| 2026 YTD | $3.43 | $6.72 | +96% |
NAT has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.