CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
MWA
Mueller Water Products, Inc.
MWA has a slight edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MWA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MWA's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
MWA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 15x | $24.01 | — |
| Current | 17x | $24.01 | — |
| Cheap | 20x | $27.87 | +16% |
| Fair | 27x | $37.82 | +58% |
| Expensive | 31x | $43.31 | +80% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MWA has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over MWA on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
MWA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect MWA's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over MWA in the latest year-over-year earnings comparison.
MWA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.57 | +11% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.41 | +16% |
MWA's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $1.41 over the past year, up 16% from the year before, and higher year over year every quarter since late 2026.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over MWA on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MWA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $376.5M | -1.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $395.9M | +4.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $384.4M | +5.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $318.2M | +4.6% |
MWA's revenue has held roughly level: $377M last quarter, down 1.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 20% | +1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 21% | +1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 18% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 18% | N/A |
| Q2 2025 | 19% | N/A |
| Q1 2025 | 19% | N/A |
| Q4 2024 | 16% | N/A |
MWA's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
MWA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $94.1M | +69% |
| Q1 2026 | -$27.5M | -639% |
| Q4 2025 | $44M | +4.3% |
MWA has the edge over CAT in the latest year-over-year cash flow comparison.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over MWA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
MWA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -100K shares |
| 1 year | -0.1% | -100K shares |
MWA has 157M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $10M |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $5.5M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $10M |
MWA spent $16M buying back its own shares over the past year.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over MWA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MWA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.4x | Very low |
MWA has more cash than debt.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
MWA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 49.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 39.0 | Neutral |
MWA's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 39 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
MWA PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | MWA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17x | 24x | 29% below |
| PE % | 8 | 58 | 50 pts below |
MWA has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
MWA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $22.5 | 6.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $23.8 | 0.7% above |
| 50 week MA | $25.6 | 6.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $25.3 | 5% below |
| 200 week MA | $20.8 | 15% above |
MWA has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over MWA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MWA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.9 | $12.1 | +2.1% |
| 2021 | $12.1 | $14.1 | +16% |
| 2022 | $14.1 | $10.8 | -24% |
| 2023 | $10.8 | $14.4 | +34% |
| 2024 | $14.4 | $22.6 | +57% |
| 2025 | $22.6 | $24.8 | +9.7% |
| 2026 YTD | $24.8 | $24.0 | -3.1% |
MWA has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's down 3.1% so far in 2026.