CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over MSM overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
MSM
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.
MSM's outlook is improving despite an expensive valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MSM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
MSM's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over MSM in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MSM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 14x | $55.77 | -53% |
| Fair | 17x | $67.64 | -43% |
| Forward | 21x | $119 | — |
| Expensive | 25x | $98.52 | -18% |
| Current | 30x | $119 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSM's PE is in its expensive range at 30x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 21x next year's earnings.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MSM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MSM, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over MSM on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.66 | +42% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.98 | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.15 | +17% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.73 | -1.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.67 | -12% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.57 | -22% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.54 | -31% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.79 | -32% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.19 | -29% |
MSM's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $3.98 over the past year, against $6.49 in early 2023.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over MSM on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over MSM on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MSM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | +10% |
| Q2 2026 | $1B | +7.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $917.8M | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $965.7M | +4% |
| Q3 2025 | $978.2M | +2.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $971.1M | -0.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $891.7M | -4.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $928.5M | -2.7% |
MSM's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $1.1B last quarter, up 10% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6.8% | -1.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 10% | +1.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 7.1% | +0.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.9% | +0.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 8.6% | -0.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.5% | -2.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7% | -2.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.8% | -2.9 points |
MSM's operating margin was 6.8% last quarter, down 1.9 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over MSM on cash flow, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
MSM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $63.8M | +8.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $80.9M | +6.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $73.1M | +196% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4M | -91% |
| Q3 2025 | $58.5M | -28% |
| Q2 2025 | $76M | -33% |
| Q1 2025 | $24.7M | -54% |
| Q4 2024 | $81.7M | +30% |
MSM still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2023 peak: $225M over the past year.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over MSM on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
MSM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | +0.2% | +96K shares |
| 3 years | -0.4% | -220K shares |
| 5 years | -0.2% | -103K shares |
| Available history | +1% | +546K shares |
MSM has 56M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $73,000 |
| Q2 2026 | $171,000 |
| Q1 2026 | $764,000 |
| Q4 2025 | $13M |
| Q3 2025 | $179,000 |
| Q2 2025 | $8.6M |
| Q1 2025 | $12.5M |
| Q4 2024 | $18.1M |
MSM spent $14M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 64% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over MSM on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MSM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.0x | Healthy |
MSM's net debt is about a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
MSM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 52.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 31.0 | Neutral |
MSM's weekly RSI is 52 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 31 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over MSM on valuation relative to its sector.
MSM PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | MSM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 30x | 24x | 25% above |
| PE % | 97 | 58 | 39 pts above |
MSM is trading at 30x earnings, a 25% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
MSM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $122.4 | 2.4% below |
| 20 week MA | $122.4 | 2.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $106.6 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $95.0 | 26% above |
| 200 week MA | $93.0 | 28% above |
MSM has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
MSM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $79.0 | $85.9 | +8.7% |
| 2021 | $85.9 | $83.9 | -2.3% |
| 2022 | $83.9 | $83.3 | -0.8% |
| 2023 | $83.3 | $101.3 | +22% |
| 2024 | $101.3 | $74.8 | -26% |
| 2025 | $74.8 | $87.4 | +17% |
| 2026 YTD | $87.4 | $119.4 | +37% |
MSM has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.