CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MSA
MSA Safety Incorporated
MSA has the edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MSA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable |
MSA's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
MSA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 18x | $175 | — |
| Current | 22x | $175 | — |
| Cheap | 24x | $183 | +5% |
| Fair | 36x | $276 | +58% |
| Expensive | 127x | $988 | +466% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSA has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MSA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MSA, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
MSA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.72 | +25% |
| Q3 2026 | $7.78 | +9.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.04 | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.40 | +2.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.08 | -1.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.09 | +2.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.01 | +1.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.25 | +7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.21 | +397% |
MSA has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over MSA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MSA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $536.4M | +15% |
| Q2 2026 | $503.3M | +6.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $463.6M | +10% |
| Q4 2025 | $510.9M | +2.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $468.4M | +8.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $474.1M | +2.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $421.3M | +1.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $499.7M | +0.9% |
MSA's revenue has grown year over year for eight quarters in a row: $536M last quarter, up 15% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 16% | -3.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 22% | +4.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 20% | +1.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 22% | -1.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 20% | -1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 18% | -3.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -0.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 24% | +2.9 points |
MSA's operating margin was 16% last quarter, down 3.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
MSA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $68.2M | -32% |
| Q2 2026 | $82.7M | +118% |
| Q1 2026 | $65.1M | +28% |
| Q4 2025 | $106M | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $100.5M | +43% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.9M | -2.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $51M | +29% |
| Q4 2024 | $93.5M | -36% |
MSA has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over MSA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
MSA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -50K shares |
| 1 year | -1.6% | -633K shares |
| 3 years | -2% | -803K shares |
| 5 years | -2% | -783K shares |
| Available history | -1.4% | -542K shares |
MSA has 39M diluted shares, down 1.6% from a year ago, with $139M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $12.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $26M |
| Q1 2026 | $60.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $39.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $1.2M |
| Q2 2025 | $30.5M |
| Q1 2025 | $18.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $9.9M |
MSA spent $139M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 132% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over MSA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MSA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.8x | Very low |
MSA's net debt is about 1.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from a year a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
MSA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 46.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 19.5 | Oversold |
MSA's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 20 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
MSA PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | MSA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22x | 24x | 6.6% below |
| PE % | 8 | 58 | 50 pts below |
MSA has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
MSA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $178.6 | 2.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $181.0 | 3.5% below |
| 50 week MA | $176.3 | 0.9% below |
| 100 week MA | $169.6 | 3% above |
| 200 week MA | $168.1 | 3.9% above |
MSA has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 3.9% above its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
MSA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $127.4 | $149.0 | +17% |
| 2021 | $149.0 | $147.2 | -1.2% |
| 2022 | $147.2 | $140.7 | -4.4% |
| 2023 | $140.7 | $168.8 | +20% |
| 2024 | $168.8 | $167.2 | -1% |
| 2025 | $167.2 | $163.9 | -2% |
| 2026 YTD | $163.9 | $174.6 | +6.6% |
MSA has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.