CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has a slight edge over MG overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
MG
Mistras Group, Inc.
MG offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
MG's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
MG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 16x | $20.19 | — |
| Cheap | 22x | $13.98 | -31% |
| Current | 32x | $20.19 | — |
| Fair | 33x | $20.98 | +3.9% |
| Expensive | 65x | $40.64 | +101% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MG has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MG, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
MG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.23 | +95% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.63 | +8.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.83 | +124% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.70 | +49% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.53 | -12% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.58 | +66% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.37 | +$0.56 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.47 | +$0.85 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.60 | +$1.18 |
MG has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over MG on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over MG on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $204.6M | +4.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $193.1M | +4.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $169M | +4.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $181.5M | +5.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $195.5M | +7% |
| Q2 2025 | $185.4M | -2.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $161.6M | -12% |
| Q4 2024 | $172.7M | -5.1% |
MG's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $205M last quarter, up 4.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.3% | -3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 6.7% | +2.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 2.8% | +3.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7% | +1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 10% | +3.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.5% | -1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | -0.6% | -3.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6% | +5.7 points |
MG's operating margin was 7.3% last quarter, down 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
MG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $686K | +$4.8M |
| Q2 2026 | $10.1M | +$24.9M |
| Q1 2026 | -$3.2M | -390% |
| Q4 2025 | $26M | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | -$4.1M | -128% |
| Q2 2025 | -$14.7M | -$14.4M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.1M | +$5.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $22.1M | +130% |
MG has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over MG on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
MG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +115K shares |
| 1 year | +3.6% | +1.2M shares |
| 3 years | +8.7% | +2.6M shares |
| 5 years | +9.7% | +2.9M shares |
| Available history | +14% | +4M shares |
MG has 33M diluted shares, up 3.6% from a year ago.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over MG on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 3.0x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
MG's net debt is about 2.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.0 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
MG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 59.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 73.9 | Neutral |
MG's weekly RSI is 59 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 74 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over MG on valuation relative to its sector.
MG PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | MG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 32x | 24x | 33% above |
| PE % | 48 | 58 | 10 pts below |
MG is trading at 32x earnings, a 33% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
MG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $20.8 | 3% below |
| 20 week MA | $18.9 | 7.1% above |
| 50 week MA | $16.9 | 20% above |
| 100 week MA | $13.1 | 54% above |
| 200 week MA | $10.5 | 92% above |
MG has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
MG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $13.9 | $7.65 | -45% |
| 2021 | $7.65 | $7.46 | -2.5% |
| 2022 | $7.46 | $5.12 | -31% |
| 2023 | $5.12 | $7.32 | +43% |
| 2024 | $7.32 | $8.95 | +22% |
| 2025 | $8.95 | $13.2 | +47% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.2 | $20.2 | +53% |
MG has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.