CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over MEC overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
MEC
Mayville Engineering Company, Inc.
MEC offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MEC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure |
MEC's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
MEC PE Valuation
MEC has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 25x next year's earnings.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MEC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect MEC to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over MEC on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
MEC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.56 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.69 | -219% |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.84 | -199% |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.80 | -174% |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.40 | -132% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.58 | -1.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.85 | +63% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.08 | +157% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.24 | +226% |
MEC has swung to a loss: it lost $0.69 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over MEC on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over MEC on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MEC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $170.4M | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $163M | +23% |
| Q1 2026 | $144.8M | +6.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $144.3M | +6.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $132.3M | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $135.6M | -16% |
| Q4 2024 | $121.3M | -18% |
MEC's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $170M last quarter, up 18% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.5% | +2.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 0.2% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | -5.3% | -6.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | -4.1% | -23 points |
| Q3 2025 | 0% | -4.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 0.1% | -4.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 1.2% | -3.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 19% | +15 points |
MEC's operating margin was 2.5% last quarter, up 2.5 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over MEC on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MEC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$3.4M | -$2.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$6.6M | -153% |
| Q1 2026 | -$6.9M | -229% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.2M | -71% |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.1M | -108% |
| Q2 2025 | $12.5M | -35% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.4M | -32% |
| Q4 2024 | $35.6M | +79% |
MEC's free cash flow was −$7M over the past year, against $52M the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over MEC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
MEC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +13% | +3.1M shares |
| 1 year | +25% | +5.1M shares |
| 3 years | +25% | +5.2M shares |
| 5 years | +23% | +4.9M shares |
| Available history | +31% | +6.1M shares |
MEC has 26M diluted shares, up 25% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $2.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7M |
| Q4 2024 | $3.9M |
| Q3 2024 | $998,000 |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | $1M |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over MEC on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MEC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 7.1x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 5.4x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.0x | Very low |
MEC's net debt is about 3.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.3 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
MEC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 10.3 | Oversold |
MEC's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 10 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
MEC PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | MEC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 24x | — |
MEC has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over MEC on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MEC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $14.7 | 4.7% below |
| 20 week MA | $20.8 | 33% below |
| 50 week MA | $21.8 | 36% below |
| 100 week MA | $18.4 | 24% below |
| 200 week MA | $16.5 | 15% below |
MEC is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 15% below its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over MEC on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MEC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.90 | $12.8 | +29% |
| 2021 | $12.8 | $14.4 | +12% |
| 2022 | $14.4 | $13.0 | -9.9% |
| 2023 | $13.0 | $14.4 | +11% |
| 2024 | $14.4 | $15.7 | +8.8% |
| 2025 | $15.7 | $19.1 | +22% |
| 2026 YTD | $19.1 | $14.0 | -27% |
MEC has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's down 27% so far in 2026.