CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over MDU overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
MDU
MDU Resources Group, Inc.
MDU trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MDU Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak |
MDU's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its cash flow and balance sheet are weak.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over MDU in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MDU PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $10.38 | -47% |
| Fair | 15x | $13.52 | -31% |
| Expensive | 19x | $17.53 | -10% |
| Forward | 19x | $19.55 | — |
| Current | 21x | $19.55 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MDU's PE is in its expensive range at 21x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 19x next year's earnings.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over MDU on the outlook, with more favorable revenue and profitability expectations.
MDU Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect MDU's earnings to grow, with its revenue and profitability holding steady.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over MDU on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MDU Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.03 | +11% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.93 | +13% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.95 | -9.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.92 | -28% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.93 | -32% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.82 | -58% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.05 | -47% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.28 | -45% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.37 | -33% |
MDU's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.93 over the past year, against $2.33 in early 2024.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over MDU on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over MDU on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MDU Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $347.7M | +10% |
| Q2 2026 | $375.3M | +6.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $606M | -10% |
| Q4 2025 | $534M | -0.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $315M | -70% |
| Q2 2025 | $351.2M | -66% |
| Q1 2025 | $674.8M | -44% |
| Q4 2024 | $535.5M | -53% |
MDU's revenue is recovering but still below its 2022 peak: $348M last quarter, up 10% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | +1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 13% | +4.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 19% | +2.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 20% | +2.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 13% | +4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.6% | +0.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 17% | +5.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | +5.3 points |
MDU's operating margin was 14% last quarter, up 1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over MDU on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MDU Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$56.3M | +$65.6M |
| Q2 2026 | $15M | -59% |
| Q1 2026 | $56.8M | -54% |
| Q4 2025 | -$336M | -$274.7M |
| Q3 2025 | -$121.9M | -$104.6M |
| Q2 2025 | $36.5M | +90% |
| Q1 2025 | $124.4M | +220% |
| Q4 2024 | -$61.3M | -815% |
MDU's free cash flow was −$320M over the past year, against −$22M the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over MDU on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
MDU Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +1M shares |
| 1 year | +3.6% | +7.4M shares |
| 3 years | +4.3% | +8.8M shares |
| 5 years | +4.7% | +9.5M shares |
| Available history | +6.1% | +12.2M shares |
MDU has 213M diluted shares, up 3.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | $50,000 |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | $4.8M |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over MDU on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MDU Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 4.8x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 5.1x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 5.3x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 4.6x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.5x | Elevated |
MDU's net debt is about 4.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 4.6 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
MDU Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 47.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 39.8 | Neutral |
MDU's weekly RSI is 48 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 40 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
MDU PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | MDU | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 24x | 13% below |
| PE % | 89 | 58 | 31 pts above |
MDU has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
MDU Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $19.0 | 2.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $19.7 | 0.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $20.4 | 4.3% below |
| 100 week MA | $19.0 | 3.1% above |
| 200 week MA | $15.8 | 23% above |
MDU has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over MDU on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MDU Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.2 | $9.78 | -12% |
| 2021 | $9.78 | $11.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $11.2 | $11.6 | +3.1% |
| 2023 | $11.6 | $11.0 | -5.1% |
| 2024 | $11.0 | $18.2 | +66% |
| 2025 | $18.2 | $19.7 | +8.1% |
| 2026 YTD | $19.7 | $19.6 | -0.7% |
MDU has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 0.7% so far in 2026.