CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over LII overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
LII
Lennox International Inc.
LII offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
LII Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LII's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
LII PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 16x | $348 | — |
| Forward | 16x | $348 | — |
| Cheap | 19x | $412 | +18% |
| Fair | 24x | $526 | +51% |
| Expensive | 30x | $651 | +87% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LII has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over LII on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
LII Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect LII's profitability to weaken, with its earnings and revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
LII Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $22.37 | +3.8% |
| Q3 2026 | $21.55 | -9% |
| Q2 2026 | $22.12 | -5.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $22.22 | -1% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.24 | -1.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $23.69 | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $23.39 | +30% |
| Q1 2025 | $22.44 | +30% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.54 | +36% |
LII has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over LII on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
LII Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.6B | +10% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +5.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.2B | -11% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.4B | -4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.5B | +3.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.1B | +2.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.3B | +16% |
LII's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $1.6B last quarter, up 10% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | -1.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 23% | -0.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 14% | -0.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 16% | -1.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 22% | +1.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 24% | +1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 15% | -1.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | +2.1 points |
LII's operating margin was 20% last quarter, down 1.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
LII Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $362.1M | +37% |
| Q2 2026 | $136.3M | +134% |
| Q1 2026 | -$39.4M | +$21.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $376.7M | +38% |
| Q3 2025 | $265.1M | -35% |
| Q2 2025 | $58.3M | -61% |
| Q1 2025 | -$61.3M | -$9M |
| Q4 2024 | $272.2M | +50% |
LII has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over LII on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
LII Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -2% | -700K shares |
| 3 years | -3.4% | -1.2M shares |
| 5 years | -6.8% | -2.5M shares |
| Available history | -12% | -4.9M shares |
LII has 35M diluted shares, down 2% from a year ago, with $452M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $150.6M |
| Q2 2026 | $131.8M |
| Q1 2026 | $19.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $150.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $37M |
| Q2 2025 | $209.6M |
| Q1 2025 | $85.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $40.7M |
LII spent $452M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 21% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over LII on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LII Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.7x | Very low |
LII's net debt is about 1.4 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from less than a year a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
LII Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 33.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 15.4 | Oversold |
LII's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 15 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
LII PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | LII | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16x | 24x | 33% below |
| PE % | 2 | 58 | 56 pts below |
LII has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over LII on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
LII Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $356.8 | 2.4% below |
| 20 week MA | $412.6 | 16% below |
| 50 week MA | $470.9 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $520.2 | 33% below |
| 200 week MA | $475.9 | 27% below |
LII is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 27% below its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over LII on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
LII Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $243.3 | $273.4 | +12% |
| 2021 | $273.4 | $316.1 | +16% |
| 2022 | $316.1 | $243.1 | -23% |
| 2023 | $243.1 | $447.5 | +84% |
| 2024 | $447.5 | $620.0 | +39% |
| 2025 | $620.0 | $498.2 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $498.2 | $348.1 | -30% |
LII is down 30% so far in 2026, after finishing higher in four of the previous six years.