CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over KMT overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
KMT
Kennametal Inc.
KMT offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
KMT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Weak | |
| Strong |
KMT's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently strong, but its cash flow is weak.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
KMT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 3.2x | $24.26 | — |
| Forward | 9.6x | $24.26 | — |
| Cheap | 15x | $117 | +383% |
| Fair | 18x | $137 | +466% |
| Expensive | 27x | $206 | +750% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
KMT has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over KMT on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
KMT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong decline | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect KMT's revenue to grow, but its earnings and profitability to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
KMT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.54 | -67% |
| Q3 2026 | $7.60 | +523% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | +268% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.77 | +27% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.43 | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.22 | -4.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.20 | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.39 | +2.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.22 | -19% |
KMT has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over KMT on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
KMT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $768.2M | +54% |
| Q2 2026 | $736.6M | +43% |
| Q1 2026 | $592.6M | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $529.5M | +9.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $498M | +3.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $516.4M | -4.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $486.4M | -5.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $482.1M | -2.7% |
KMT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $768M last quarter, up 54% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 49% | +42 points |
| Q2 2026 | 41% | +35 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | +4.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 9.9% | +3.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.5% | +0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 6.1% | -5.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 9.1% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6.6% | +0.8 points |
KMT has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over KMT on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
KMT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$212.1M | -$206.6M |
| Q2 2026 | -$96.9M | -270% |
| Q1 2026 | -$20.9M | -495% |
| Q4 2025 | $42.4M | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | -$5.5M | -126% |
| Q2 2025 | $57.1M | -37% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.3M | -89% |
| Q4 2024 | $35.9M | -2.6% |
KMT's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$287M over the past year.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over KMT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
KMT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.9% | +696K shares |
| 1 year | +1.7% | +1.3M shares |
| 3 years | -3.2% | -2.6M shares |
| 5 years | -7.8% | -6.6M shares |
| Available history | -6% | -5M shares |
KMT has 78M diluted shares, up 1.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $38,000 |
| Q2 2026 | $38,000 |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $38,000 |
| Q3 2025 | $10M |
| Q2 2025 | $5M |
| Q1 2025 | $25M |
| Q4 2024 | $15M |
KMT has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over KMT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
KMT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
KMT's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 1.8 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
KMT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.8 | Oversold |
KMT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
KMT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | KMT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 3.2x | 24x | 87% below |
| PE % | 0 | 58 | 58 pts below |
KMT has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over KMT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
KMT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $29.0 | 16% below |
| 20 week MA | $30.8 | 21% below |
| 50 week MA | $33.4 | 27% below |
| 100 week MA | $27.9 | 13% below |
| 200 week MA | $26.9 | 9.7% below |
KMT is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 9.7% below its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over KMT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
KMT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $37.1 | $37.4 | +0.8% |
| 2021 | $37.4 | $35.6 | -4.9% |
| 2022 | $35.6 | $24.3 | -32% |
| 2023 | $24.3 | $25.8 | +6.4% |
| 2024 | $25.8 | $24.2 | -6.3% |
| 2025 | $24.2 | $29.3 | +21% |
| 2026 YTD | $29.3 | $24.3 | -17% |
KMT has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 17% so far in 2026.