CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
JCI
Johnson Controls International plc
JCI has a slight edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
JCI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable |
JCI's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over JCI in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
JCI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 20x | $95.28 | -33% |
| Forward | 22x | $143 | — |
| Fair | 30x | $139 | -2.7% |
| Current | 31x | $143 | — |
| Expensive | 36x | $169 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
JCI's PE is in its fair range at 31x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 22x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
JCI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for JCI, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
JCI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.34 | +36% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.67 | -7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.68 | +70% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.53 | +48% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.25 | +102% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.03 | +100% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.35 | +40% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.73 | +51% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.60 | -15% |
JCI has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over JCI on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over JCI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
JCI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $7.1B | +10% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.6B | +9.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.1B | +8.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.8B | +6.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.4B | +120% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.1B | -16% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.7B | -15% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.4B | -11% |
JCI's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $7.1B last quarter, up 10% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 15% | +9.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 15% | +3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 12% | +3.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 12% | +4.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 5.5% | -1.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 12% | -6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.8% | +14 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.5% | +0.9 points |
JCI's operating margin was 15% last quarter, up 9.4 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
JCI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +117% |
| Q1 2026 | $604M | +32% |
| Q4 2025 | $531M | +299% |
| Q3 2025 | $838M | +1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $693M | -25% |
| Q1 2025 | $456M | +$792M |
| Q4 2024 | $133M | +$471M |
JCI has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
JCI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -2M shares |
| 1 year | -6.6% | -43.1M shares |
| 3 years | -11% | -76.4M shares |
| 5 years | -15% | -110M shares |
| Available history | -21% | -163M shares |
JCI has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $655M |
| Q2 2026 | $264M |
| Q1 2026 | $215M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $5B |
| Q2 2025 | $310M |
| Q1 2025 | $330M |
| Q4 2024 | $330M |
JCI spent $1.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 81% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over JCI on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
JCI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 3.0x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 3.8x | Elevated |
JCI's net debt is about 2.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.4 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
JCI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 49.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 35.5 | Neutral |
JCI's weekly RSI is 50 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 35 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over JCI on valuation relative to its sector.
JCI PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | JCI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 31x | 24x | 27% above |
| PE % | 56 | 58 | 2 pts below |
JCI is trading at 31x earnings, a 27% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
JCI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $147.5 | 3.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $145.8 | 2.2% below |
| 50 week MA | $137.7 | 3.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $117.3 | 22% above |
| 200 week MA | $90.8 | 57% above |
JCI has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
JCI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $41.1 | $45.9 | +12% |
| 2021 | $45.9 | $78.1 | +70% |
| 2022 | $78.1 | $64.1 | -18% |
| 2023 | $64.1 | $57.6 | -10% |
| 2024 | $57.6 | $79.8 | +38% |
| 2025 | $79.8 | $122.1 | +53% |
| 2026 YTD | $122.1 | $142.6 | +17% |
JCI has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.