CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over ITW overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
ITW
Illinois Tool Works Inc.
ITW offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
ITW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
ITW's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
ITW PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 23x | $253 | -12% |
| Fair | 24x | $274 | -4.4% |
| Forward | 24x | $287 | — |
| Current | 26x | $287 | — |
| Expensive | 28x | $311 | +8.4% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ITW has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over ITW on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
ITW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect ITW's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
ITW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $12.04 | +7.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $11.22 | +8.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $11.03 | -3.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $10.77 | -5.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.49 | -10% |
| Q3 2025 | $10.30 | -11% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.40 | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.36 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +20% |
ITW has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ITW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.2B | +4.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.3B | +6.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $4B | +4.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.1B | +4.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.1B | +2.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.1B | +0.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.8B | -3.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.9B | -1.3% |
ITW's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $4.2B last quarter, up 4.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 27% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 25% | +0.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 27% | +0.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 27% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 26% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 25% | -3.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 26% | +1.4 points |
ITW has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
ITW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $851M | -5.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $631M | +41% |
| Q1 2026 | $528M | +6.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $858M | -14% |
| Q3 2025 | $904M | +15% |
| Q2 2025 | $449M | -21% |
| Q1 2025 | $496M | +0.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $996M | +9.7% |
ITW has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
ITW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.6% | -1.7M shares |
| 1 year | -2.2% | -6.4M shares |
| 3 years | -5.8% | -17.7M shares |
| 5 years | -9.7% | -30.6M shares |
| Available history | -12% | -40.3M shares |
ITW has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $187M |
| Q2 2026 | $750M |
| Q1 2026 | $375M |
| Q4 2025 | $375M |
| Q3 2025 | $375M |
| Q2 2025 | $375M |
| Q1 2025 | $375M |
| Q4 2024 | $375M |
ITW spent $1.7B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 12% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over ITW on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ITW Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.5x | Healthy |
ITW's net debt is about 1.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
ITW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 60.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 59.9 | Neutral |
ITW's weekly RSI is 60 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over ITW on valuation relative to its sector.
ITW PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | ITW | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26x | 24x | 6.4% above |
| PE % | 67 | 58 | 9 pts above |
ITW is trading at 26x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
ITW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $274.5 | 4.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $277.0 | 3.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $269.0 | 6.6% above |
| 100 week MA | $260.5 | 10% above |
| 200 week MA | $253.6 | 13% above |
ITW has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
ITW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $181.1 | $202.4 | +12% |
| 2021 | $202.4 | $240.5 | +19% |
| 2022 | $240.5 | $222.0 | -7.7% |
| 2023 | $222.0 | $261.9 | +18% |
| 2024 | $261.9 | $256.6 | -2.1% |
| 2025 | $256.6 | $252.5 | -1.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $252.5 | $286.8 | +14% |
ITW has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.