CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over HTLD overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
HTLD
Heartland Express, Inc.
HTLD offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
HTLD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Stable | |
| Weak | |
| Strong |
HTLD's balance sheet is currently strong, and its profitability is stable, but its revenue and cash flow are under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
HTLD PE Valuation
HTLD has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 29x next year's earnings.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over HTLD on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
HTLD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect HTLD to return to profit, with revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over HTLD on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
HTLD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.36 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.15 | +$0.31 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.27 | +$0.20 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.55 | -$0.18 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.67 | -$0.29 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.46 | -$0.18 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.47 | -$0.17 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.37 | -$0.21 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.38 | -300% |
HTLD lost $0.15 per share over the past year, a smaller loss than the year before.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over HTLD on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over HTLD on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
HTLD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $179.5M | -8.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $184.1M | -12% |
| Q1 2026 | $176.3M | -20% |
| Q4 2025 | $179.4M | -26% |
| Q3 2025 | $196.5M | -24% |
| Q2 2025 | $210.4M | -23% |
| Q1 2025 | $219.4M | -19% |
| Q4 2024 | $242.6M | -12% |
HTLD's revenue has slid since its 2022 peak: $180M last quarter, down 8.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.3% | +5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 9% | +15 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1.9% | +4.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | -13% | -13 points |
| Q3 2025 | -3.7% | -0.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | -5.9% | -6 points |
| Q1 2025 | -6.8% | -1.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 0.4% | -3.5 points |
HTLD's operating margin was 1.3% last quarter, up 5 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over HTLD on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
HTLD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$7.4M | +$4.7M |
| Q2 2026 | -$34.6M | -$21.8M |
| Q1 2026 | $5.1M | +125% |
| Q4 2025 | -$44.2M | +$1.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$12.2M | -149% |
| Q2 2025 | -$12.8M | -143% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.3M | -91% |
| Q4 2024 | -$45.5M | -601% |
HTLD has burned cash in six of the last eight quarters: −$81M over the past year, against −$68M the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over HTLD on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
HTLD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -45K shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -126K shares |
| 3 years | -2.2% | -1.7M shares |
| 5 years | -2.5% | -2M shares |
| Available history | -5.6% | -4.6M shares |
HTLD has 77M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $35,000 |
| Q3 2025 | $1.4M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over HTLD on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
HTLD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.1x | Healthy |
HTLD's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 1.1 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
HTLD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 10.0 | Oversold |
HTLD's weekly RSI is 39 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 10 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
HTLD PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | HTLD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 24x | — |
HTLD has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over HTLD on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
HTLD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $10.8 | 3.8% below |
| 20 week MA | $12.2 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $11.9 | 13% below |
| 100 week MA | $10.5 | 1.1% below |
| 200 week MA | $12.0 | 14% below |
HTLD is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 14% below its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
HTLD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $20.9 | $18.2 | -13% |
| 2021 | $18.2 | $16.6 | -9% |
| 2022 | $16.6 | $15.8 | -4.9% |
| 2023 | $15.8 | $14.3 | -9.5% |
| 2024 | $14.3 | $11.1 | -22% |
| 2025 | $11.1 | $9.20 | -17% |
| 2026 YTD | $9.20 | $10.4 | +13% |
HTLD has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.