CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over HLMN overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
HLMN
Hillman Solutions Corp.
HLMN offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
HLMN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure |
HLMN's revenue and cash flow are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
HLMN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 13x | $7.90 | — |
| Cheap | 42x | $5.03 | -36% |
| Current | 66x | $7.90 | — |
| Fair | 78x | $9.31 | +18% |
| Expensive | 337x | $40.48 | +412% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HLMN has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over HLMN on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
HLMN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for HLMN, with profitability holding steady.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
HLMN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.63 | +422% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.12 | -40% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.21 | +75% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.18 | +80% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.20 | +122% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.20 | +400% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.12 | +300% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.10 | +$0.11 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.09 | +$0.14 |
HLMN has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over HLMN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
HLMN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $457.5M | +7.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $442.3M | +9.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $370.1M | +3% |
| Q4 2025 | $365.1M | +4.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $424.9M | +8% |
| Q2 2025 | $402.8M | +6.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $359.3M | +2.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $349.6M | +0.5% |
HLMN's revenue has grown year over year for eight quarters in a row: $457M last quarter, up 7.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.3% | -2.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 9.3% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 1.9% | -2.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 4.6% | +0.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 11% | +4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 9% | +0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 4.2% | -0.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 4% | +2.8 points |
HLMN's operating margin was 8.3% last quarter, down 2.5 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over HLMN on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
HLMN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $51.1M | +464% |
| Q2 2026 | $70.2M | +125% |
| Q1 2026 | -$34.3M | -$13M |
| Q4 2025 | $16.1M | -27% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.1M | -77% |
| Q2 2025 | $31.2M | -27% |
| Q1 2025 | -$21.3M | -$15.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $22.1M | -58% |
HLMN still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2026 peak: $103M over the past year.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over HLMN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
HLMN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -833K shares |
| 1 year | -1.9% | -3.8M shares |
| 3 years | -0.3% | -517K shares |
| 5 years | +1056% | +179M shares |
HLMN has 196M diluted shares, down 1.9% from a year ago, with $38M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5M |
| Q2 2026 | $13.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $10.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $9.3M |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
HLMN spent $38M buying back its own shares over the past year.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over HLMN on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
HLMN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.0x | Elevated |
HLMN's net debt is about 3.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 2.6 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
HLMN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 48.0 | Neutral |
HLMN's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 48 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over HLMN on valuation relative to its sector.
HLMN PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | HLMN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 66x | 24x | 173% above |
| PE % | 39 | 56 | 17 pts below |
HLMN is trading at 66x earnings, a 173% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
HLMN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $7.46 | 5.9% above |
| 20 week MA | $7.76 | 1.8% above |
| 50 week MA | $8.24 | 4.1% below |
| 100 week MA | $8.52 | 7.3% below |
| 200 week MA | $8.83 | 11% below |
HLMN has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8- and 20-week averages, but 11% below its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over HLMN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
HLMN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.95 | $10.2 | +2.9% |
| 2021 | $10.2 | $10.5 | +2.5% |
| 2022 | $10.5 | $6.82 | -35% |
| 2023 | $6.82 | $9.21 | +35% |
| 2024 | $9.21 | $9.80 | +6.4% |
| 2025 | $9.80 | $9.09 | -7.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $9.09 | $7.90 | -13% |
HLMN has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 13% so far in 2026.