HLMN
Hillman Solutions Corp.
HLMN's fundamentals are mixed: free cash flow more than doubled, but earnings per share fell 40%. At 66x earnings, it's trading below its usual 78x. Its downside scenario is more than twice its upside.
HLMN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure |
HLMN's revenue and cash flow are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
HLMN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 13x | $7.90 | — |
| Cheap | 42x | $5.03 | -36% |
| Current | 66x | $7.90 | — |
| Fair | 78x | $9.31 | +18% |
| Expensive | 337x | $40.48 | +412% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HLMN's PE is in its fair range at 66x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 13x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
HLMN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for HLMN, with profitability holding steady.
HLMN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.63 | +422% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.12 | -40% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.21 | +75% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.18 | +80% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.20 | +122% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.20 | +400% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.12 | +300% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.10 | +$0.11 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.09 | +$0.14 |
HLMN earned $0.12 per share over the past year, down 40% from the year before.
HLMN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $457.5M | +7.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $442.3M | +9.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $370.1M | +3% |
| Q4 2025 | $365.1M | +4.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $424.9M | +8% |
| Q2 2025 | $402.8M | +6.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $359.3M | +2.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $349.6M | +0.5% |
HLMN's revenue has grown year over year for eight quarters in a row: $457M last quarter, up 7.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.3% | -2.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 9.3% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 1.9% | -2.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 4.6% | +0.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 11% | +4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 9% | +0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 4.2% | -0.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 4% | +2.8 points |
HLMN's operating margin was 8.3% last quarter, down 2.5 points from the same quarter a year ago.
HLMN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $51.1M | +464% |
| Q2 2026 | $70.2M | +125% |
| Q1 2026 | -$34.3M | -$13M |
| Q4 2025 | $16.1M | -27% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.1M | -77% |
| Q2 2025 | $31.2M | -27% |
| Q1 2025 | -$21.3M | -$15.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $22.1M | -58% |
HLMN still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2026 peak: $103M over the past year.
HLMN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -833K shares |
| 1 year | -1.9% | -3.8M shares |
| 3 years | -0.3% | -517K shares |
| 5 years | +1056% | +179M shares |
HLMN has 196M diluted shares, down 1.9% from a year ago, with $38M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5M |
| Q2 2026 | $13.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $10.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $9.3M |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
HLMN spent $38M buying back its own shares over the past year.
HLMN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.0x | Elevated |
HLMN's net debt is about 3.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 2.6 years a year ago.
HLMN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 48.0 | Neutral |
HLMN's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 48 (neutral).
HLMN PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | HLMN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 66x | 24x | 174% above |
| PE % | 39 | 56 | 17 pts below |
HLMN is trading at 66x earnings, a 174% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
HLMN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $7.46 | 5.9% above |
| 20 week MA | $7.76 | 1.8% above |
| 50 week MA | $8.24 | 4.1% below |
| 100 week MA | $8.52 | 7.3% below |
| 200 week MA | $8.83 | 11% below |
HLMN has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8- and 20-week averages, but 11% below its 200-week average.
HLMN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.95 | $10.2 | +2.9% |
| 2021 | $10.2 | $10.5 | +2.5% |
| 2022 | $10.5 | $6.82 | -35% |
| 2023 | $6.82 | $9.21 | +35% |
| 2024 | $9.21 | $9.80 | +6.4% |
| 2025 | $9.80 | $9.09 | -7.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $9.09 | $7.90 | -13% |
HLMN has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 13% so far in 2026.