CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over GXO overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
GXO
GXO Logistics, Inc.
GXO offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
GXO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure |
GXO's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
GXO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 16x | $54.33 | — |
| Cheap | 29x | $33.62 | -38% |
| Fair | 41x | $47.10 | -13% |
| Current | 47x | $54.33 | — |
| Expensive | 75x | $86.46 | +59% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GXO has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
GXO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for GXO, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over GXO on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
GXO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.45 | +197% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.16 | +53% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.11 | +109% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.12 | +81% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.28 | -75% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.76 | -16% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.53 | -55% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.62 | -56% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.12 | -42% |
GXO's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.16 over the past year, against $1.92 in late 2023.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over GXO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
GXO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.6B | +5.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.4B | +4.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.3B | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.5B | +7.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.4B | +7.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.3B | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $3B | +21% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.3B | +25% |
GXO's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since early 2021: $3.6B last quarter, up 5.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.7% | -0.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 2.2% | -0.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2% | +3.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.7% | -0.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.5% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.7% | +0.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | -1.9% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 3.1% | -0.3 points |
GXO's operating margin was 2.7% last quarter, down 0.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over GXO on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
GXO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $82M | -6.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $11M | +$55M |
| Q1 2026 | -$34M | +$15M |
| Q4 2025 | $115M | +40% |
| Q3 2025 | $88M | -15% |
| Q2 2025 | -$44M | -263% |
| Q1 2025 | -$49M | -$26M |
| Q4 2024 | $82M | -44% |
GXO still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2023 peak: $174M over the past year.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over GXO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
GXO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -1.1M shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -693K shares |
| 3 years | -4.2% | -5M shares |
| 5 years | -1.2% | -1.4M shares |
| Available history | 0% | +33.9K shares |
GXO has 115M diluted shares, down 0.6% from a year ago, with $102M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $84M |
| Q2 2026 | $18M |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $94M |
| Q1 2025 | $106M |
| Q1 2021 | — |
GXO spent $102M buying back its own shares over the past year.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over GXO on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
GXO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.5x | Elevated |
GXO's net debt is about 3.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
GXO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 59.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 73.7 | Neutral |
GXO's weekly RSI is 60 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 74 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over GXO on valuation relative to its sector.
GXO PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | GXO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 47x | 24x | 95% above |
| PE % | 65 | 63 | 2 pts above |
GXO is trading at 47x earnings, a 95% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
GXO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $49.2 | 10% above |
| 20 week MA | $49.2 | 10% above |
| 50 week MA | $52.3 | 3.9% above |
| 100 week MA | $49.0 | 11% above |
| 200 week MA | $51.9 | 4.7% above |
GXO has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over GXO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
GXO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $60.0 | $91.8 | +53% |
| 2022 | $91.8 | $43.0 | -53% |
| 2023 | $43.0 | $61.2 | +42% |
| 2024 | $61.2 | $42.8 | -30% |
| 2025 | $42.8 | $53.8 | +26% |
| 2026 YTD | $53.8 | $54.3 | +1% |
GXO has finished higher in three of the last five years. It's up 1% so far in 2026.