CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
GTES
Gates Industrial Corporation plc
GTES has a slight edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
GTES Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
GTES's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over GTES in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
GTES PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 13x | $25.35 | — |
| Cheap | 15x | $20.85 | -18% |
| Current | 18x | $25.35 | — |
| Fair | 20x | $28.21 | +11% |
| Expensive | 31x | $44.49 | +76% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GTES's PE is in its fair range at 18x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 13x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
GTES Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for GTES, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
GTES Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.89 | +32% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.43 | +55% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.40 | +77% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.95 | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.96 | +30% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.92 | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.79 | -15% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.83 | -7.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.74 | -12% |
GTES has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over GTES on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over GTES on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
GTES Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $903.6M | +5.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $941.6M | +6.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $851.1M | +0.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $856.2M | +3.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $855.7M | +3% |
| Q2 2025 | $883.7M | -0.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $847.6M | -1.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $829.4M | -3.9% |
GTES's revenue grew through 2021 and has held roughly level since: $904M last quarter, up 5.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 15% | +1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | +0.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 13% | -0.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 13% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | -2.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 15% | +1.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 14% | -0.3 points |
GTES's operating margin was 15% last quarter, up 1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
GTES Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42.4M | -47% |
| Q2 2026 | $60.3M | -28% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.5M | +$23.7M |
| Q4 2025 | $251M | +50% |
| Q3 2025 | $80.5M | -14% |
| Q2 2025 | $83.6M | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | -$10.2M | +$26.8M |
| Q4 2024 | $167.6M | -0.1% |
GTES generated $367M in free cash flow over the past year, up 14% from the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
GTES Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -552K shares |
| 1 year | -2.3% | -6M shares |
| 3 years | -4.6% | -12.3M shares |
| 5 years | -15% | -44.1M shares |
| Available history | -12% | -36M shares |
GTES has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $57.4M |
| Q2 2026 | $22.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $16.6M |
| Q4 2025 | $106.3M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $13M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
GTES spent $202M buying back its own shares over the past year, more than ten times what it spent the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over GTES on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
GTES Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.4x | Moderate |
GTES's net debt is about 2.0 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.3 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
GTES Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 48.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 20.0 | Neutral |
GTES's weekly RSI is 48 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 20 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
GTES PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | GTES | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 24x | 26% below |
| PE % | 35 | 58 | 23 pts below |
GTES has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
GTES Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $25.7 | 1.2% below |
| 20 week MA | $26.3 | 3.5% below |
| 50 week MA | $25.2 | 0.6% above |
| 100 week MA | $23.7 | 7.1% above |
| 200 week MA | $19.3 | 31% above |
GTES has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
GTES Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $13.7 | $13.1 | -4.5% |
| 2021 | $13.1 | $15.4 | +18% |
| 2022 | $15.4 | $11.2 | -28% |
| 2023 | $11.2 | $13.4 | +20% |
| 2024 | $13.4 | $20.7 | +54% |
| 2025 | $20.7 | $22.0 | +6.3% |
| 2026 YTD | $22.0 | $25.4 | +15% |
GTES has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.