CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over GGG overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
GGG
Graco Inc.
GGG offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
GGG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
GGG's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently strong, and its revenue is stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
GGG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 21x | $72.44 | — |
| Current | 23x | $72.44 | — |
| Cheap | 25x | $78.04 | +7.7% |
| Fair | 28x | $87.32 | +21% |
| Expensive | 32x | $97.81 | +35% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GGG has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over GGG on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
GGG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for GGG, with profitability holding steady.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
GGG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.40 | +9.7% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.10 | +5.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.17 | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.06 | +8.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.08 | +9.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.93 | +3.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.82 | -2.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.83 | -2.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.82 | -4.1% |
GGG has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
GGG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $586.4M | +7.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $590.6M | +3.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $540.1M | +2.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $593.2M | +8.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $543.4M | +4.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $571.8M | +3.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $528.3M | +7.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $548.7M | -3.2% |
GGG's revenue has grown year over year for seven quarters in a row: $586M last quarter, up 7.9% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 25% | -5.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 30% | +2.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 26% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 27% | +3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 30% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | -1.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | +0.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 24% | -6.3 points |
GGG has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
GGG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $146.3M | -17% |
| Q2 2026 | $161.3M | -1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $108.1M | -5.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $184.3M | +7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $175.7M | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $163.1M | +59% |
| Q1 2025 | $114.8M | +40% |
| Q4 2024 | $171.3M | +42% |
GGG has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
GGG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.6% | -2.7M shares |
| 1 year | -3.3% | -5.6M shares |
| 3 years | -5.6% | -9.8M shares |
| 5 years | -6.7% | -11.8M shares |
| Available history | -5% | -8.6M shares |
GGG has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $131.8M |
| Q2 2026 | $319.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $11.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $62.2M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $122.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $238.1M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
GGG spent $525M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 45% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over GGG on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
GGG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
GGG has more cash than debt.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
GGG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 17.9 | Oversold |
GGG's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 18 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
GGG PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | GGG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23x | 24x | 2.9% below |
| PE % | 3 | 58 | 55 pts below |
GGG has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over GGG on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
GGG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $73.9 | 1.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $76.5 | 5.3% below |
| 50 week MA | $80.7 | 10% below |
| 100 week MA | $82.3 | 12% below |
| 200 week MA | $81.7 | 11% below |
GGG is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over GGG on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
GGG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $52.2 | $72.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $72.8 | $78.6 | +7.9% |
| 2022 | $78.6 | $66.8 | -15% |
| 2023 | $66.8 | $86.8 | +30% |
| 2024 | $86.8 | $84.1 | -3% |
| 2025 | $84.1 | $83.4 | -0.9% |
| 2026 YTD | $83.4 | $72.4 | -13% |
GGG has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 13% so far in 2026.