CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over GFL overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
GFL
GFL Environmental Inc.
GFL offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
GFL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Stable | |
| Weak |
GFL's revenue is currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable, but its profitability and balance sheet are under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
GFL PE Valuation
GFL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over GFL on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
GFL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for GFL, but weaker profitability. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over GFL on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
GFL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.73 | -111% |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.49 | -108% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.31 | -94% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.83 | +$8.33 |
| Q3 2025 | $6.42 | +$7.70 |
| Q2 2025 | $6.38 | +$7.78 |
| Q1 2025 | $4.97 | +$4.97 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.50 | -$1.46 |
GFL has swung to a loss: it lost $0.73 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over GFL on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
GFL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B | +24% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.4B | +16% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B | +5.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.2B | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.2B | +9% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2B | +5.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.1B | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.4B | +5.5% |
GFL's revenue has picked up after three years of holding roughly level: $1.5B last quarter, up 24% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6.9% | -2.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 5.6% | -3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 2.1% | +2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 1.8% | -3.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.5% | +3.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.6% | +3.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1% | -1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 5.3% | +3.6 points |
GFL's operating margin was 6.9% last quarter, down 2.6 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
GFL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $88.6M | +24% |
| Q2 2026 | $85.7M | +613% |
| Q1 2026 | -$160.5M | -$61.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $138.5M | -21% |
| Q3 2025 | $71.4M | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $12M | -62% |
| Q1 2025 | -$99.2M | -$84M |
| Q4 2024 | $174.4M | +46% |
GFL still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2024 peak: $152M over the past year.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over GFL on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
GFL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +6.7% | +24.3M shares |
| 1 year | +4.2% | +15.4M shares |
| 3 years | +4.4% | +16.1M shares |
| 5 years | +6.5% | +23.6M shares |
| Available history | +7% | +25.3M shares |
GFL has 386M diluted shares, up 4.2% from a year ago, despite $197M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $9.8M |
| Q1 2026 | $40.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $146.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $243.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $195.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q4 2024 | — |
GFL spent $197M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 90% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over GFL on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
GFL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6.6x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 5.6x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 4.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 4.2x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 6.6x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 9.7x | High |
GFL's net debt is about 6.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 4.2 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
GFL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 49.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 70.0 | Neutral |
GFL's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 70 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
GFL PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | GFL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 24x | — |
GFL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
GFL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $43.7 | 4.1% below |
| 20 week MA | $42.2 | 0.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $41.3 | 1.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $44.2 | 5.1% below |
| 200 week MA | $39.9 | 5.2% above |
GFL's trend is mixed: it's above two of its five weekly moving averages, and 5.2% above its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over GFL on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
GFL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $17.0 | $28.2 | +66% |
| 2021 | $28.2 | $38.0 | +35% |
| 2022 | $38.0 | $28.2 | -26% |
| 2023 | $28.2 | $34.5 | +22% |
| 2024 | $34.5 | $44.6 | +29% |
| 2025 | $44.6 | $43.2 | -3% |
| 2026 YTD | $43.2 | $41.9 | -3% |
GFL has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 3% so far in 2026.