CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over GEO overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
GEO
The GEO Group, Inc.
GEO's outlook is improving despite an expensive valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
GEO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
GEO's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over GEO in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
GEO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.4x | $8.70 | -73% |
| Fair | 12x | $13.62 | -58% |
| Forward | 16x | $32.22 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $31.14 | -3.4% |
| Current | 27x | $32.22 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GEO's PE is in its expensive range at 27x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 16x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
GEO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for GEO, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
GEO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.05 | +74% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.18 | -32% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.05 | +201% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.90 | +764% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.75 | +695% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.73 | +592% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.68 | +209% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.22 | -67% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.22 | -69% |
GEO has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over GEO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
GEO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $761.1M | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $732.1M | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $705.2M | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $707.7M | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $682.3M | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $636.2M | +4.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $604.6M | -0.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $607.7M | -0.1% |
GEO's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $761M last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 13% | +7.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | +2.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 12% | +0.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6% | -7.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 11% | -1.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 10% | -3.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -2.6 points |
GEO's operating margin was 13% last quarter, up 7.5 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over GEO on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
GEO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $176.6M | +$190.7M |
| Q2 2026 | $59.4M | +2420% |
| Q1 2026 | $134.8M | +233% |
| Q4 2025 | -$153.6M | -$151.2M |
| Q3 2025 | -$14.1M | -116% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.4M | -45% |
| Q1 2025 | $40.5M | -43% |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.3M | -107% |
GEO still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2026 peak: $217M over the past year.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
GEO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -22K shares |
| 1 year | -5.7% | -8M shares |
| 3 years | +6.9% | +8.6M shares |
| 5 years | +9.2% | +11.1M shares |
| Available history | +11% | +12.7M shares |
GEO has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $36.6M |
| Q1 2026 | $50.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $49.4M |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | $553,000 |
| Q3 2020 | $553,000 |
| Q2 2020 | — |
GEO spent $136M buying back its own shares over the past year.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over GEO on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
GEO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 4.1x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 4.0x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.8x | Elevated |
GEO's net debt is about 2.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.7 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
GEO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 63.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 52.6 | Neutral |
GEO's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 53 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over GEO on valuation relative to its sector.
GEO PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | GEO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 24x | 13% above |
| PE % | 83 | 58 | 25 pts above |
GEO is trading at 27x earnings, a 13% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
GEO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $29.8 | 8.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $30.6 | 5.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $23.6 | 36% above |
| 100 week MA | $24.1 | 34% above |
| 200 week MA | $18.0 | 79% above |
GEO has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
GEO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $16.8 | $8.98 | -47% |
| 2021 | $8.98 | $7.67 | -15% |
| 2022 | $7.67 | $11.2 | +46% |
| 2023 | $11.2 | $10.8 | -3.1% |
| 2024 | $10.8 | $27.7 | +155% |
| 2025 | $27.7 | $16.3 | -41% |
| 2026 YTD | $16.3 | $32.2 | +98% |
GEO has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.