CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
FSS
Federal Signal Corporation
FSS has the edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
FSS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
FSS's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
FSS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 20x | $98.68 | -14% |
| Forward | 20x | $115 | — |
| Current | 24x | $115 | — |
| Fair | 26x | $126 | +9.2% |
| Expensive | 30x | $143 | +24% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
FSS has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
FSS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for FSS, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
FSS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.65 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.82 | +26% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.64 | +30% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.40 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.01 | +15% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.82 | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.58 | +9.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.41 | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.50 | +37% |
FSS has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over FSS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
FSS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $655.5M | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $670.2M | +19% |
| Q1 2026 | $625.6M | +35% |
| Q4 2025 | $597.1M | +27% |
| Q3 2025 | $555M | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $564.6M | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $463.8M | +9.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $472M | +5.3% |
FSS has the edge over CAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 17% | 0 points |
| Q2 2026 | 18% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 16% | +1.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -0.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 14% | +1.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +0.8 points |
FSS's operating margin was 17% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
FSS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $80M | +48% |
| Q2 2026 | $101M | +93% |
| Q1 2026 | $94.6M | +204% |
| Q4 2025 | $89.5M | +9% |
| Q3 2025 | $54.1M | -11% |
| Q2 2025 | $52.4M | +111% |
| Q1 2025 | $31.1M | +36% |
| Q4 2024 | $82.1M | -13% |
FSS has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over FSS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
FSS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | +0.2% | +100K shares |
| 3 years | +0.2% | +100K shares |
| 5 years | -0.3% | -200K shares |
| Available history | -0.2% | -100K shares |
FSS has 62M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5M |
| Q2 2026 | $100,000 |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $21.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $18.5M |
| Q4 2024 | $2.2M |
FSS has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over FSS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
FSS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.4x | Very low |
FSS's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
FSS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 49.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 32.3 | Neutral |
FSS's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 32 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over FSS on valuation relative to its sector.
FSS PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | FSS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 0.8% below |
| PE % | 33 | 58 | 25 pts below |
FSS is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
FSS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $113.9 | 1% above |
| 20 week MA | $118.0 | 2.5% below |
| 50 week MA | $115.1 | 0% below |
| 100 week MA | $108.6 | 5.9% above |
| 200 week MA | $90.8 | 27% above |
FSS has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over FSS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
FSS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $32.4 | $31.9 | -1.6% |
| 2021 | $31.9 | $42.4 | +33% |
| 2022 | $42.4 | $46.1 | +8.9% |
| 2023 | $46.1 | $76.7 | +66% |
| 2024 | $76.7 | $92.7 | +21% |
| 2025 | $92.7 | $113.4 | +22% |
| 2026 YTD | $113.4 | $115.1 | +1.4% |
FSS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 1.4% so far in 2026.