CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over FERG overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
FERG
Ferguson plc
FERG offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
FERG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
FERG's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
FERG PE Valuation
FERG has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAT has the edge over FERG on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.
FERG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect FERG's revenue to grow, with its earnings and profitability holding steady.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
FERG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $12.52 | +18% |
| Q3 2026 | $10.63 | +7.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.45 | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $10.55 | +32% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.49 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $9.88 | +19% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.32 | +9.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.02 | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.13 | -5.5% |
FERG has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over FERG on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
FERG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $9B | +10% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.8B | +3% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.5B | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.5B | +9.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.2B | +5.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.5B | +6.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.6B | +4.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.9B | +3% |
FERG's revenue has picked up after three years of holding roughly level: $9B last quarter, up 10% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.8% | +0.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 10% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2% | +0.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | +2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 9.4% | +0.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 11% | +0.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8% | -0.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 6% | -1.2 points |
FERG's operating margin was 9.8% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
FERG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $648M | +108% |
| Q2 2026 | -$198M | -142% |
| Q1 2026 | $680M | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $471M | +82% |
| Q4 2025 | $312M | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $471M | +83% |
| Q2 2025 | $605M | +5.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $259M | +26% |
FERG has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over FERG on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
FERG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -100K shares |
| 1 year | -1.4% | -2.7M shares |
| 3 years | -5.2% | -10.7M shares |
| 5 years | -13% | -28.8M shares |
| Available history | -15% | -33.4M shares |
FERG has 194M diluted shares, down 1.4% from a year ago, with $627M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $202M |
| Q1 2026 | $236M |
| Q4 2025 | $189M |
| Q4 2025 | $208M |
| Q3 2025 | $189M |
| Q2 2025 | $251M |
| Q1 2025 | $252M |
FERG spent $627M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 30% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over FERG on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
FERG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
FERG's net debt is about 1.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.2 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
FERG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 60.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 54.4 | Neutral |
FERG's weekly RSI is 60 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 54 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
FERG PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | FERG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 24x | — |
FERG has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
FERG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $231.5 | 10% above |
| 20 week MA | $232.2 | 9.8% above |
| 50 week MA | $237.2 | 7.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $219.8 | 16% above |
| 200 week MA | $199.1 | 28% above |
FERG has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
FERG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $91.3 | $118.5 | +30% |
| 2021 | $118.5 | $175.9 | +48% |
| 2022 | $175.9 | $124.9 | -29% |
| 2023 | $124.9 | $193.1 | +55% |
| 2024 | $193.1 | $175.1 | -9.3% |
| 2025 | $175.1 | $228.7 | +31% |
| 2026 YTD | $228.7 | $254.9 | +11% |
FERG has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.