CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has a slight edge over EXPD overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
EXPD
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
EXPD has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
EXPD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
EXPD's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
EXPD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 14x | $110 | -44% |
| Fair | 22x | $171 | -13% |
| Forward | 22x | $196 | — |
| Current | 25x | $196 | — |
| Expensive | 26x | $202 | +3.2% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
EXPD has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
EXPD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for EXPD, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
EXPD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $8.75 | +11% |
| Q3 2026 | $7.89 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.88 | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.19 | +2.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.95 | +4% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.13 | +19% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.12 | +31% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.02 | +27% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.72 | +14% |
EXPD has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over EXPD on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
EXPD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.1B | +42% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.5B | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.8B | +4.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.9B | -3.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.9B | -3.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.7B | +8.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.7B | +21% |
| Q4 2024 | $3B | +30% |
EXPD has the edge over CAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 10% | +0.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 11% | +0.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8.8% | -1.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 10% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 9.3% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 10% | +0.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 10% | +1.4 points |
EXPD's operating margin was 11% last quarter, up 0.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
EXPD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $194.3M | +2.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $166.6M | +2% |
| Q1 2026 | $296.6M | -10% |
| Q4 2025 | $270.3M | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $190.3M | +145% |
| Q2 2025 | $163.3M | +37% |
| Q1 2025 | $329.5M | +34% |
| Q4 2024 | $239.7M | +62% |
EXPD has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
EXPD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1% | -1.3M shares |
| 1 year | -3.8% | -5.2M shares |
| 3 years | -12% | -17.9M shares |
| 5 years | -24% | -41.4M shares |
| Available history | -25% | -44.1M shares |
EXPD has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $197.3M |
| Q2 2026 | $354.9M |
| Q1 2026 | $287.6M |
| Q4 2025 | $46.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $212.3M |
| Q2 2025 | $231.1M |
| Q1 2025 | $177.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $252.2M |
EXPD spent $886M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 1.5% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has more cash than debt.
EXPD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
EXPD has the edge over CAT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
EXPD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 61.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 66.5 | Neutral |
EXPD's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 66 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over EXPD on valuation relative to its sector.
EXPD PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | EXPD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25x | 24x | 3.2% above |
| PE % | 74 | 58 | 16 pts above |
EXPD is trading at 25x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
EXPD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $193.1 | 1.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $186.3 | 5% above |
| 50 week MA | $166.5 | 18% above |
| 100 week MA | $142.0 | 38% above |
| 200 week MA | $130.2 | 50% above |
EXPD has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
EXPD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $77.5 | $94.6 | +22% |
| 2021 | $94.6 | $130.8 | +38% |
| 2022 | $130.8 | $107.3 | -18% |
| 2023 | $107.3 | $127.2 | +19% |
| 2024 | $127.2 | $111.4 | -12% |
| 2025 | $111.4 | $152.2 | +37% |
| 2026 YTD | $152.2 | $195.7 | +29% |
EXPD has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.