CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
EME
EMCOR Group, Inc.
EME has the edge over CAT overall, supported by stronger valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
EME Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
EME's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
EME PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $569 | -14% |
| Forward | 17x | $663 | — |
| Current | 19x | $663 | — |
| Fair | 21x | $726 | +9.5% |
| Expensive | 27x | $940 | +42% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
EME has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
EME Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for EME, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
EME Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $39.43 | +14% |
| Q3 2026 | $34.58 | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $32.11 | +33% |
| Q1 2026 | $29.77 | +32% |
| Q4 2025 | $28.19 | +31% |
| Q3 2025 | $24.85 | +26% |
| Q2 2025 | $24.08 | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $22.61 | +49% |
| Q4 2024 | $21.52 | +62% |
EME has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over EME on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
EME Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.5B | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.2B | +20% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.5B | +20% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.3B | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.3B | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.9B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.8B | +9.6% |
EME has the edge over CAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 9.8% | +0.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 11% | +1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.7% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 13% | +2.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.4% | -0.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 9.7% | +0.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.2% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 10% | +1.9 points |
EME's operating margin was 9.8% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over EME on cash flow, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
EME Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $759.6M | +69% |
| Q2 2026 | $258.2M | +56% |
| Q1 2026 | -$28.2M | -134% |
| Q4 2025 | $492.5M | +9% |
| Q3 2025 | $448.8M | -12% |
| Q2 2025 | $165.6M | -36% |
| Q1 2025 | $82.3M | -26% |
| Q4 2024 | $451.8M | +12% |
EME generated $1.5B in free cash flow over the past year, up 29% from the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over EME on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
EME Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -307K shares |
| 1 year | -1.6% | -723K shares |
| 3 years | -6.7% | -3.2M shares |
| 5 years | -18% | -9.7M shares |
| Available history | -22% | -12.3M shares |
EME has 44M diluted shares, down 1.6% from a year ago, with $611M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $188M |
| Q2 2026 | $181.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $87.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $154.1M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $207.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $224.8M |
| Q4 2024 | $84.4M |
EME spent $611M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 18% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over EME on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
EME Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
EME has more cash than debt.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
EME Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 20.0 | Oversold |
EME's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 20 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
EME PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | EME | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 19x | 24x | 20% below |
| PE % | 31 | 58 | 27 pts below |
EME has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
EME Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $707.3 | 6.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $747.8 | 11% below |
| 50 week MA | $754.8 | 12% below |
| 100 week MA | $639.0 | 3.7% above |
| 200 week MA | $458.9 | 44% above |
EME has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 44% above its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
EME Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $87.1 | $92.2 | +5.9% |
| 2021 | $92.2 | $125.6 | +36% |
| 2022 | $125.6 | $149.9 | +19% |
| 2023 | $149.9 | $215.4 | +44% |
| 2024 | $215.4 | $459.4 | +113% |
| 2025 | $459.4 | $627.1 | +37% |
| 2026 YTD | $627.1 | $662.8 | +5.7% |
EME has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.