CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over CWST overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
CWST
Casella Waste Systems, Inc.
CWST offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CWST Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure |
CWST's revenue is currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable, but its profitability and balance sheet are under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
CWST PE Valuation
CWST has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CWST Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CWST, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over CWST on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
CWST Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.58 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.18 | -175% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.09 | -50% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.11 | -50% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.12 | -48% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.24 | +85% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.18 | -47% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.22 | -31% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.23 | -50% |
CWST has swung to a loss: it lost $0.18 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over CWST on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CWST Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $559.2M | +15% |
| Q2 2026 | $543.7M | +17% |
| Q1 2026 | $457.3M | +9.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $469.1M | +9.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $485.4M | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $465.3M | +23% |
| Q1 2025 | $417.1M | +22% |
| Q4 2024 | $427.5M | +19% |
CWST has the edge over CAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.8% | -3.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.7% | -0.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 1.1% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.5% | -1.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6% | +0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.1% | -2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.8% | -1.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 4.3% | +0.6 points |
CWST's operating margin was 2.8% last quarter, down 3.3 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
CWST Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.6M | -91% |
| Q2 2026 | $26.5M | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | $12.3M | +$17.6M |
| Q4 2025 | $39.3M | +19% |
| Q3 2025 | $27.6M | -32% |
| Q2 2025 | $23.1M | -16% |
| Q1 2025 | -$5.4M | +$17.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $32.9M | +207% |
CWST has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over CWST on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
CWST Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -43K shares |
| 1 year | +0.1% | +51K shares |
| 3 years | +9.6% | +5.6M shares |
| 5 years | +23% | +12.1M shares |
| Available history | +31% | +15.1M shares |
CWST has 64M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over CWST on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CWST Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.5x | Moderate |
CWST's net debt is about 3.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 2.6 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
CWST Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 60.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 86.3 | Overbought |
CWST's weekly RSI is 60 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 86 (overbought).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over CWST on valuation relative to its sector.
CWST PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CWST | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 1,091x | 24x | 4,434% above |
| PE % | 100 | 58 | 42 pts above |
CWST has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
CWST Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $90.8 | 10% above |
| 20 week MA | $91.7 | 9.4% above |
| 50 week MA | $91.8 | 9.3% above |
| 100 week MA | $98.5 | 1.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $94.6 | 6% above |
CWST has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over CWST on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
CWST Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $45.8 | $61.6 | +34% |
| 2021 | $61.6 | $83.5 | +36% |
| 2022 | $83.5 | $80.7 | -3.3% |
| 2023 | $80.7 | $85.5 | +5.9% |
| 2024 | $85.5 | $106.2 | +24% |
| 2025 | $106.2 | $101.1 | -4.7% |
| 2026 YTD | $101.1 | $100.3 | -0.8% |
CWST has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 0.8% so far in 2026.