CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over CVLG overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
CVLG
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.
CVLG's outlook is improving despite an expensive valuation.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CVLG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Stable |
CVLG's revenue is currently healthy, and its profitability and balance sheet are stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT has the edge over CVLG in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CVLG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 5.9x | $1.24 | -96% |
| Forward | 13x | $32.82 | — |
| Fair | 16x | $3.45 | -90% |
| Expensive | 82x | $17.22 | -48% |
| Current | 156x | $32.82 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CVLG's PE is in its expensive range at 156x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 13x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CVLG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CVLG, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over CVLG on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CVLG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.56 | +1120% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.21 | -82% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.16 | -88% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.20 | -86% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.27 | -79% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.19 | -21% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.31 | -14% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.40 | -9.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.30 | -35% |
CVLG's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.21 over the past year, against $3.65 in late 2022.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over CVLG on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CVLG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $353.9M | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $332.9M | +9.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $307.2M | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $295.4M | +6.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $296.9M | +3.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $302.9M | +5.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $269.4M | -3.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $277.3M | +1.2% |
CVLG's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $354M last quarter, up 19% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.5% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 2.7% | -1.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 2% | -0.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.2% | -11 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.7% | -3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 3.8% | -1.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 2.8% | +1.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 3.1% | -2.1 points |
CVLG's operating margin was 3.5% last quarter, up 0.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over CVLG on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
CVLG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$7.1M | +$687K |
| Q2 2026 | -$44.7M | -$30.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $17.6M | +$26.2M |
| Q4 2025 | -$3M | -742% |
| Q3 2025 | -$7.8M | -132% |
| Q2 2025 | -$14.5M | +$13.6M |
| Q1 2025 | -$8.6M | +$18.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $464K | +$74.2M |
CVLG has burned cash in six of the last eight quarters: −$37M over the past year, against −$30M the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over CVLG on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
CVLG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +14K shares |
| 1 year | +1.1% | +302K shares |
| 3 years | -2.8% | -755K shares |
| 5 years | -22% | -7.3M shares |
| Available history | -29% | -10.7M shares |
CVLG has 27M diluted shares, up 1.1% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $7,000 |
| Q3 2025 | $1M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | $58,000 |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over CVLG on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CVLG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CVLG's net debt is about 2.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 2.1 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
CVLG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 47.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 35.2 | Neutral |
CVLG's weekly RSI is 47 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 35 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over CVLG on valuation relative to its sector.
CVLG PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CVLG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 156x | 24x | 549% above |
| PE % | 90 | 58 | 32 pts above |
CVLG is trading at 156x earnings, a 549% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
CVLG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $31.7 | 3.6% above |
| 20 week MA | $35.9 | 8.5% below |
| 50 week MA | $32.6 | 0.8% above |
| 100 week MA | $27.9 | 18% above |
| 200 week MA | $25.4 | 29% above |
CVLG has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
CVLG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $6.45 | $7.70 | +19% |
| 2021 | $7.70 | $12.0 | +56% |
| 2022 | $12.0 | $18.0 | +49% |
| 2023 | $18.0 | $23.0 | +28% |
| 2024 | $23.0 | $27.3 | +19% |
| 2025 | $27.3 | $22.4 | -18% |
| 2026 YTD | $22.4 | $32.8 | +46% |
CVLG has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.