CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has a slight edge over CSX overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
CSX
CSX Corporation
CSX has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CSX Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Stable |
CSX's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
CSX PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $31.56 | -40% |
| Fair | 19x | $36.91 | -30% |
| Forward | 23x | $52.40 | — |
| Expensive | 25x | $49.12 | -6.3% |
| Current | 27x | $52.40 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CSX has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CSX Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CSX, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over CSX on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CSX Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.29 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.93 | +25% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.73 | +6.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.63 | -3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.54 | -14% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.54 | -18% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.63 | -11% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.68 | -8.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.80 | -2.7% |
CSX earned $1.93 per share over the past year, up 25% from the year before.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over CSX on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CSX Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.9B | +10% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.5B | +1.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.5B | -0.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.6B | -0.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.6B | -3.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.4B | -7% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.5B | -3.8% |
CSX's revenue has picked up after three years of holding roughly level: $4B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 39% | +8.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 38% | +2.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 36% | +5.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +0.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 30% | -7.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 36% | -3.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 30% | -6.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 31% | -4.6 points |
CSX has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
CSX Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1B | +69% |
| Q2 2026 | $751M | +$892M |
| Q1 2026 | $729M | +36% |
| Q4 2025 | $709M | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $607M | -43% |
| Q2 2025 | -$141M | -125% |
| Q1 2025 | $536M | -4.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $550M | -32% |
CSX generated $3.2B in free cash flow over the past year, up 107% from the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over CSX on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
CSX Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -6M shares |
| 1 year | -0.7% | -14M shares |
| 3 years | -7.3% | -146M shares |
| 5 years | -17% | -389M shares |
| Available history | -23% | -541M shares |
CSX has 1.9B diluted shares, down 0.7% from a year ago, with $1.2B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $543M |
| Q2 2026 | $296M |
| Q1 2026 | $222M |
| Q4 2025 | $112M |
| Q3 2025 | $112M |
| Q2 2025 | $421M |
| Q1 2025 | $751M |
| Q4 2024 | $1B |
CSX spent $1.2B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 49% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over CSX on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CSX Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 3.0x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.5x | Moderate |
CSX's net debt is about 2.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.0 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
CSX Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 73.1 | Neutral |
CSX's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 73 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over CSX on valuation relative to its sector.
CSX PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CSX | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 24x | 13% above |
| PE % | 89 | 58 | 31 pts above |
CSX is trading at 27x earnings, a 13% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
CSX Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $49.3 | 6.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $49.8 | 5.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $44.7 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $38.7 | 36% above |
| 200 week MA | $35.9 | 46% above |
CSX has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
CSX Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $24.3 | $30.0 | +24% |
| 2021 | $30.0 | $36.8 | +23% |
| 2022 | $36.8 | $31.3 | -15% |
| 2023 | $31.3 | $34.7 | +11% |
| 2024 | $34.7 | $32.5 | -6.4% |
| 2025 | $32.5 | $36.6 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $36.6 | $52.4 | +43% |
CSX has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.