CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over CPA overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
CPA
Copa Holdings, S.A.
CPA offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CPA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
CPA's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
CPA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 6.6x | $100 | -30% |
| Forward | 8.2x | $143 | — |
| Fair | 8.5x | $130 | -9.1% |
| Current | 9.4x | $143 | — |
| Expensive | 11x | $171 | +20% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CPA has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CPA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CPA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
CPA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $17.32 | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $15.22 | -1% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.16 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $16.28 | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $16.09 | +4.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.38 | -7.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.65 | +3.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $14.56 | +12% |
| Q3 2024 | $15.34 | +47% |
CPA has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $20.7B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over CPA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CPA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B | +26% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $962.9M | +9.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $913.1M | +6.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $842.6M | +2.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $899.2M | +0.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $878.6M | -3.7% |
| Q3 2024 | $854.7M | -1.5% |
CPA's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $1.1B last quarter, up 26% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 8.7% | -12 points |
| Q1 2026 | 25% | +0.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 22% | -0.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 23% | +2.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 21% | +1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 24% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 23% | -0.3 points |
| Q3 2024 | 20% | -3.3 points |
CPA's operating margin was 8.7% last quarter, down 12 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
CPA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$49.5M | +$62.2M |
| Q1 2026 | -$54.4M | -126% |
| Q4 2025 | $352.5M | +$641.2M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78M | -141% |
| Q2 2025 | -$111.7M | -141% |
| Q1 2025 | $205.5M | +2.2% |
| Q4 2024 | -$288.7M | +$231.3M |
| Q3 2024 | $188.6M | -45% |
CPA's free cash flow has turned positive again: $171M over the past year, against −$6M the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over CPA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
CPA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -278K shares |
| 1 year | -0.8% | -341K shares |
| 3 years | +1.8% | +704K shares |
| 5 years | -4.1% | -1.7M shares |
| Available history | -3.7% | -1.6M shares |
CPA has 41M diluted shares, down 0.8% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $45M |
| Q4 2025 | $1,000 |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $8.7M |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $87.3M |
| Q3 2024 | — |
CPA spent $45M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 53% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over CPA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CPA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2024 | 1.4x | Healthy |
CPA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 1.6 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
CPA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 57.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 49.0 | Neutral |
CPA's weekly RSI is 58 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 49 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CPA PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CPA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.4x | 24x | 61% below |
| PE % | 62 | 58 | 4 pts above |
CPA has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
CPA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $134.9 | 5.9% above |
| 20 week MA | $136.5 | 4.6% above |
| 50 week MA | $132.3 | 7.9% above |
| 100 week MA | $118.8 | 20% above |
| 200 week MA | $107.8 | 33% above |
CPA has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
CPA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $107.5 | $74.9 | -30% |
| 2021 | $74.9 | $82.4 | +10% |
| 2022 | $82.4 | $84.6 | +2.6% |
| 2023 | $84.6 | $106.3 | +26% |
| 2024 | $106.3 | $87.6 | -18% |
| 2025 | $87.6 | $121.5 | +39% |
| 2026 YTD | $121.5 | $142.8 | +18% |
CPA has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.