CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over CNI overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
CNI
Canadian National Railway Company
CNI offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CNI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Stable |
CNI's profitability and cash flow are currently strong, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
CNI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 19x | $102 | -20% |
| Fair | 21x | $115 | -10% |
| Current | 23x | $128 | — |
| Expensive | 24x | $134 | +4.7% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CNI has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CNI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CNI, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
CNI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $5.48 | +7.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.34 | +6.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.32 | +7.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.18 | -13% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.10 | -14% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.02 | -16% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.93 | -18% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.96 | +15% |
CNI has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over CNI on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CNI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.3B | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.1B | -0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.1B | +2.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.9B | +1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $3B | -1.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.1B | +3.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.1B | -2.5% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.9B | +3.1% |
CNI's revenue grew through 2022 and has held roughly level since: $3.3B last quarter, up 11% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 37% | -0.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 35% | -1.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 39% | +1.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 39% | +1.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 38% | +2.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 37% | +0.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | -3.3 points |
| Q3 2024 | 37% | -1.2 points |
CNI has the edge over CAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT has the edge over CNI on cash flow, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
CNI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $644.3M | -2.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $582.2M | +28% |
| Q4 2025 | $701.1M | -5.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $568.1M | +35% |
| Q2 2025 | $660.9M | -2.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $453.5M | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $738.9M | -29% |
| Q3 2024 | $420.4M | +0.5% |
CNI's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $2.5B over the past year, up 9.8% from the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
CNI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -4.4M shares |
| 1 year | -3.3% | -20.5M shares |
| 3 years | -8.4% | -55.6M shares |
| 5 years | -15% | -103M shares |
| Available history | -16% | -113M shares |
CNI has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $327.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $631.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $429.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $730.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $213M |
| Q1 2025 | $113.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $111.1M |
| Q3 2024 | $313.6M |
CNI spent $2.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 182% from the year before.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over CNI on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CNI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q3 2024 | 2.3x | Moderate |
CNI's net debt is about 2.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 2.3 years a year ago.
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
CNI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 66.0 | Neutral |
CNI's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 66 (neutral).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CNI PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CNI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23x | 24x | 3.1% below |
| PE % | 78 | 58 | 20 pts above |
CNI has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 37% above its 200-week average.
CNI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $122.4 | 4.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $124.2 | 2.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $113.9 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $106.5 | 20% above |
| 200 week MA | $112.5 | 14% above |
CNI has the edge over CAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 3.8% so far in 2026.
CNI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $90.9 | $109.7 | +21% |
| 2021 | $109.7 | $121.7 | +11% |
| 2022 | $121.7 | $120.4 | -1% |
| 2023 | $120.4 | $125.6 | +4.3% |
| 2024 | $125.6 | $102.0 | -19% |
| 2025 | $102.0 | $98.7 | -3.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $98.7 | $127.8 | +29% |
CNI has the edge over CAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.