CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over CMI overall, supported by stronger fundamentals.
CMI
Cummins Inc.
CMI has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CMI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
CMI's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
CMI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 13x | $305 | -33% |
| Forward | 14x | $455 | — |
| Fair | 18x | $423 | -7.2% |
| Current | 19x | $455 | — |
| Expensive | 25x | $596 | +31% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CMI has the edge over CAT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CMI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CMI, with profitability improving.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.32 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT earned $25.48 per share over the past year, up 31% from the year before.
CMI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $32.34 | +35% |
| Q3 2026 | $23.94 | +23% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.55 | -8.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.25 | -5.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $20.50 | -28% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.47 | +29% |
| Q2 2025 | $21.47 | +55% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.30 | +49% |
| Q4 2024 | $28.37 | +451% |
CMI has the edge over CAT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over CMI on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over CMI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CMI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $9.4B | +13% |
| Q2 2026 | $9.5B | +9.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.4B | +2.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.5B | +1.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.3B | -1.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.6B | -1.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.2B | -2.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.4B | -1.1% |
CMI's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $9.4B last quarter, up 13% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 15% | +5.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 11% | -2.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 9.5% | +0.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 10% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | +2.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 14% | +2.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8.7% | +23 points |
CMI's operating margin was 15% last quarter, up 5.1 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
CMI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | +9.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +126% |
| Q1 2026 | $120M | +$285M |
| Q4 2025 | $990M | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $1B | +164% |
| Q2 2025 | $554M | +$1.6B |
| Q1 2025 | -$165M | -254% |
| Q4 2024 | $882M | -6.2% |
CMI has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has the edge over CMI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
CMI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -400K shares |
| 1 year | -0.5% | -700K shares |
| 3 years | -3.3% | -4.7M shares |
| 5 years | -4.6% | -6.6M shares |
| Available history | -12% | -18M shares |
CMI has 138M diluted shares, down 0.5% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $359M |
| Q2 2026 | $225M |
| Q1 2026 | $243M |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | $4M |
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over CMI on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CMI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.1x | Healthy |
CMI's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
CMI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 28.0 | Oversold |
| Stochastic | 3.3 | Oversold |
CMI's weekly RSI is 28 (oversold) and its Stochastic is 3 (oversold).
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.3% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT is trading at 24x earnings, in line with the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
CMI PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CMI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 19x | 24x | 21% below |
| PE % | 58 | 58 | Same percentile |
CMI has the edge over CAT on valuation relative to its sector.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over CMI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CMI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $503.9 | 9.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $569.7 | 20% below |
| 50 week MA | $584.4 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $475.1 | 4.2% below |
| 200 week MA | $370.2 | 23% above |
CMI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 23% above its 200-week average.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over CMI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
CMI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $180.7 | $226.5 | +25% |
| 2021 | $226.5 | $214.0 | -5.5% |
| 2022 | $214.0 | $241.3 | +13% |
| 2023 | $241.3 | $239.6 | -0.7% |
| 2024 | $239.6 | $351.2 | +47% |
| 2025 | $351.2 | $519.1 | +48% |
| 2026 YTD | $519.1 | $455.4 | -12% |
CMI has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 12% so far in 2026.