CART
Instacart (Maplebear Inc.)
CART has the edge over RIVN overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc.
RIVN offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CART Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CART's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
RIVN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
RIVN's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
CART PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 21x | $58.48 | — |
| Cheap | 22x | $43.21 | -26% |
| Fair | 25x | $48.42 | -17% |
| Expensive | 29x | $55.58 | -5% |
| Current | 30x | $58.48 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CART's PE is in its expensive range at 30x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 21x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
RIVN PE Valuation
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CART Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CART, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
RIVN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect RIVN's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CART Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.74 | +42% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.93 | +6% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.84 | +6.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.80 | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.60 | +1.3% |
CART has the edge over RIVN on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
RIVN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.25 | +$0.83 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.58 | +$0.62 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.92 | +$0.77 |
| Q4 2025 | -$3.07 | +$1.62 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.08 | +$2.52 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.20 | +$2.76 |
| Q1 2025 | -$3.69 | +$2.08 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.69 | +$1.05 |
RIVN is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.25 per share over the past year, against $7.40 at its worst in late 2022.
CART Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $1B | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | $1B | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $992M | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $939M | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $914M | +11% |
| Q1 2025 | $897M | +9.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $883M | +10% |
CART's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since early 2022: $1.1B last quarter, up 17% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 16% | -1.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | +0.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | +5.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 9.8% | -7.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 18% | +1.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | +7.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | -5.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | +12 points |
CART has the edge over RIVN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RIVN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | +38% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | -26% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.6B | +78% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | +3% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.7B | +32% |
RIVN's revenue is growing: $2.2B last quarter, up 38% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -41% | +22 points |
| Q2 2026 | -50% | +35 points |
| Q1 2026 | -64% | -11 points |
| Q4 2025 | -65% | -27 points |
| Q3 2025 | -63% | +71 points |
| Q2 2025 | -86% | +33 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +70 points |
| Q4 2024 | -38% | +82 points |
RIVN's operating margin was −41% last quarter, up 22 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2021.
CART Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $306M | +13% |
| Q2 2026 | $481M | +157% |
| Q1 2026 | $252M | -10% |
| Q4 2025 | $171M | +21% |
| Q3 2025 | $272M | +59% |
| Q2 2025 | $187M | -15% |
| Q1 2025 | $280M | +208% |
| Q4 2024 | $141M | -35% |
CART has the edge over RIVN on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RIVN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.1B | -$703M |
| Q2 2026 | -$849M | -$451M |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | -$549M |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.1B | -234% |
| Q3 2025 | -$421M | +$732M |
| Q2 2025 | -$398M | +$639M |
| Q1 2025 | -$526M | +$997M |
| Q4 2024 | $856M | +$2.3B |
RIVN has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$4.2B over the past year, against −$489M the year before.
CART Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.5% | -1.3M shares |
| 1 year | -13% | -35.6M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -28.9M shares |
CART has the edge over RIVN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $238M |
| Q2 2026 | $324M |
| Q1 2026 | $359M |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B |
| Q3 2025 | $62M |
| Q2 2025 | $121M |
| Q1 2025 | $89M |
| Q4 2024 | $5M |
CART spent $2B buying back its own shares over the past year, about seven times what it spent the year before.
RIVN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +9.1% | +121M shares |
| 1 year | +19% | +226M shares |
| 3 years | +52% | +494M shares |
RIVN has 1.4B diluted shares, up 19% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | $6M |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
CART Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.7x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -3.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -2.3x | Net Cash |
CART has more cash than debt.
RIVN Net Leverage
RIVN's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
CART Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 69.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 78.4 | Neutral |
CART's weekly RSI is 69 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 78 (neutral).
RIVN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 25.6 | Neutral |
RIVN's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
CART PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | CART | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 30x | 18x | 68% above |
| PE % | 92 | 31 | 61 pts above |
CART is trading at 30x earnings, a 68% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
RIVN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CART Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $51.8 | 13% above |
| 20 week MA | $49.3 | 19% above |
| 50 week MA | $44.0 | 33% above |
| 100 week MA | $43.8 | 33% above |
CART has stronger trend alignment. CART is above 4 of 4 weekly averages versus RIVN above 0 of 5.
RIVN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $13.3 | 3.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $15.9 | 19% below |
| 100 week MA | $14.7 | 13% below |
| 200 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
RIVN is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 15% below its 200-week average.
CART Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $30.0 | $23.5 | -22% |
| 2024 | $23.5 | $42.2 | +80% |
| 2025 | $42.2 | $45.9 | +8.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $45.9 | $58.5 | +28% |
CART has the edge over RIVN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
RIVN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $130.0 | $96.8 | -25% |
| 2022 | $96.8 | $19.1 | -80% |
| 2023 | $19.1 | $23.5 | +23% |
| 2024 | $23.5 | $13.7 | -42% |
| 2025 | $13.7 | $20.9 | +53% |
| 2026 YTD | $20.9 | $12.8 | -39% |
RIVN has finished lower in three of the last five years. It's down 39% so far in 2026.