CARR
Carrier Global Corporation
CARR offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT has the edge over CARR overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
CARR Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak |
CARR's revenue and cash flow are currently healthy, but its profitability and balance sheet are weak.
CAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CARR PE Valuation
CARR has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $380 | -37% |
| Fair | 18x | $461 | -24% |
| Forward | 20x | $605 | — |
| Current | 24x | $605 | — |
| Expensive | 33x | $840 | +39% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAT's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
CARR Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CARR, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAT, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CARR Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.05 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$2.21 | -149% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.45 | -67% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.53 | -76% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.72 | -72% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.47 | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.46 | +19% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.33 | +343% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.15 | +289% |
CARR has swung to a loss: it lost $2.21 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
CAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.73 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $25.48 | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.23 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.08 | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $18.81 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.46 | -9.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.64 | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.50 | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.05 | +9.6% |
CAT has the edge over CARR on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
CARR Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $6.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.4B | +3.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.3B | +2.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.8B | -6% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.6B | -6.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.1B | -8.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.2B | -16% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.1B | +0.9% |
CARR's revenue grew through 2023 and has held roughly level since: $6.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -36% | -46 points |
| Q2 2026 | 13% | -1.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.8% | -7.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.1% | -13 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.7% | -3.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 15% | -40 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +3.1 points |
CARR's operating margin was −36% last quarter, down 46 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
CAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.7B | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.4B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.1B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.6B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.2B | -9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | -5% |
CAT has the edge over CARR on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -2.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -3.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.3 points |
CAT has the edge over CARR on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CARR Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $674M | +201% |
| Q2 2026 | $810M | +43% |
| Q1 2026 | -$15M | -104% |
| Q4 2025 | $909M | +$994M |
| Q3 2025 | $224M | +$580M |
| Q2 2025 | $568M | +3.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $420M | +$484M |
| Q4 2024 | -$85M | -110% |
CARR has the edge over CAT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.8B | +47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +97% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.7B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | -1.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | -4.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $579M | -63% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.7B | -22% |
CAT generated $11.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
CARR Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.8% | -14.7M shares |
| 1 year | -4.3% | -36.8M shares |
| 3 years | -3.8% | -32.9M shares |
| 5 years | -7.9% | -70.2M shares |
| Available history | -5.1% | -44.4M shares |
CARR has the edge over CAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $399M |
| Q2 2026 | $439M |
| Q1 2026 | $306M |
| Q4 2025 | $479M |
| Q3 2025 | $785M |
| Q2 2025 | $340M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.3B |
| Q4 2024 | $1.5B |
CARR spent $1.6B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 59% from the year before.
CAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -1.6M shares |
| 1 year | -2.1% | -9.9M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -51.7M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -86.7M shares |
| Available history | -19% | -107M shares |
CAT has 461M diluted shares, down 2.1% from a year ago, with $8.1B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $5B |
| Q4 2025 | $340M |
| Q3 2025 | $362M |
| Q2 2025 | $828M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $640M |
CAT spent $8.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
CARR Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 52.2x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.0x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.2x | Healthy |
CARR's net debt is more than 20 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 2.5 years a year ago.
CAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
CAT has the edge over CARR on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CARR Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 7.0 | Oversold |
CARR's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
CAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.7 | Oversold |
CAT's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
CARR PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CARR | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 39x | 24x | 61% above |
| PE % | 87 | 56 | 31 pts above |
CARR has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | CAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 24x | 1.1% below |
| PE % | 69 | 58 | 11 pts above |
CAT has the edge over CARR on valuation relative to its sector.
CARR Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $54.8 | 0.8% below |
| 20 week MA | $59.7 | 9% below |
| 50 week MA | $60.5 | 10% below |
| 100 week MA | $63.1 | 14% below |
| 200 week MA | $60.3 | 9.9% below |
CARR is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 9.9% below its 200-week average.
CAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $709.0 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $797.0 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $771.3 | 22% below |
| 100 week MA | $586.7 | 3.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $443.1 | 37% above |
CAT has the edge over CARR on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CARR Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $12.8 | $37.9 | +197% |
| 2021 | $37.9 | $52.8 | +39% |
| 2022 | $52.8 | $41.8 | -21% |
| 2023 | $41.8 | $57.5 | +37% |
| 2024 | $57.5 | $68.9 | +20% |
| 2025 | $68.9 | $53.6 | -22% |
| 2026 YTD | $53.6 | $54.4 | +1.5% |
CARR has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's up 1.5% so far in 2026.
CAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $148.3 | $179.6 | +21% |
| 2021 | $179.6 | $206.2 | +15% |
| 2022 | $206.2 | $239.9 | +16% |
| 2023 | $239.9 | $295.7 | +23% |
| 2024 | $295.7 | $364.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $364.9 | $583.0 | +60% |
| 2026 YTD | $583.0 | $605.3 | +3.8% |
CAT has the edge over CARR on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.