CARG

CarGurus, Inc.

80
Fundamentals84/ 100
Valuation86/ 100
Upside potential74/ 100
Risk potential16/ 100

CARG has the edge over RIVN overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.

RIVN

Rivian Automotive, Inc.

53
Fundamentals56/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential61/ 100
Risk potential31/ 100

RIVN's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.

CARG Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Strong
Strong
Strong

CARG's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently strong, and its revenue is stable.

RIVN Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Weak
Weak
Unavailable

RIVN's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.

CARG PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE42x84x126x167x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE42x84x126x167x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Forward12x$34.27—
Current17x$34.27—
Cheap24x$47.19+38%
Fair37x$74.22+117%
Expensive86x$171+399%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

CARG's PE is in its cheap range at 17x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 12x next year's earnings.

RIVN PE Valuation

RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

CARG Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Growth
Growth
Strongly improving
Limited
High

Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CARG, with profitability improving.

RIVN Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Losses shrinking
Strong growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Low

Analysts expect RIVN's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

CARG Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+45%$49.63
Downside-16%$28.92

Calculated from the latest close: $34.27 on Nov 12.

CARG has a better modeled risk to reward balance than RIVN, with more potential upside relative to its potential downside.

RIVN Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+49%$19.04
Downside-31%$8.82

Calculated from the latest close: $12.80 on Nov 12.

RIVN trails CARG on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside relative to its potential downside.

CARG Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $0.19Q1 2024: $0.29Q2 2024: $-0.49Q3 2024: $-0.45Q4 2024: $0.20Q1 2025: $0.37Q2 2025: $1.25Q3 2025: $1.49Q4 2025: $1.55Q1 2026: $1.52Q2 2026: $1.84Q3 2026: $1.98Forward: $2.94
Q4 2023: $0.19Q1 2024: $0.29Q2 2024: $-0.49Q3 2024: $-0.45Q4 2024: $0.20Q1 2025: $0.37Q2 2025: $1.25Q3 2025: $1.49Q4 2025: $1.55Q1 2026: $1.52Q2 2026: $1.84Q3 2026: $1.98Forward: $2.94
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$2.94+49%
Q3 2026$1.98+33%
Q2 2026$1.84+47%
Q1 2026$1.52+311%
Q4 2025$1.55+675%
Q3 2025$1.49+$1.94
Q2 2025$1.25+$1.74
Q1 2025$0.37+28%
Q4 2024$0.20+5.3%

CARG has the edge over RIVN on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

RIVN Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $-5.74Q1 2024: $-5.77Q2 2024: $-5.96Q3 2024: $-5.60Q4 2024: $-4.69Q1 2025: $-3.69Q2 2025: $-3.20Q3 2025: $-3.08Q4 2025: $-3.07Q1 2026: $-2.92Q2 2026: $-2.58Q3 2026: $-2.25
Q4 2023: $-5.74Q1 2024: $-5.77Q2 2024: $-5.96Q3 2024: $-5.60Q4 2024: $-4.69Q1 2025: $-3.69Q2 2025: $-3.20Q3 2025: $-3.08Q4 2025: $-3.07Q1 2026: $-2.92Q2 2026: $-2.58Q3 2026: $-2.25
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q3 2026-$2.25+$0.83
Q2 2026-$2.58+$0.62
Q1 2026-$2.92+$0.77
Q4 2025-$3.07+$1.62
Q3 2025-$3.08+$2.52
Q2 2025-$3.20+$2.76
Q1 2025-$3.69+$2.08
Q4 2024-$4.69+$1.05

RIVN is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.25 per share over the past year, against $7.40 at its worst in late 2022.

CARG Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $223MQ1 2024: $216MQ2 2024: $219MQ3 2024: $231MQ4 2024: $229MQ1 2025: $225MQ2 2025: $234MQ3 2025: $239MQ4 2025: $241MQ1 2026: $244MQ2 2026: $251MQ3 2026: $258M
Q4 2023: $223MQ1 2024: $216MQ2 2024: $219MQ3 2024: $231MQ4 2024: $229MQ1 2025: $225MQ2 2025: $234MQ3 2025: $239MQ4 2025: $241MQ1 2026: $244MQ2 2026: $251MQ3 2026: $258M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$258.4M+8.2%
Q2 2026$251M+7.2%
Q1 2026$243.6M+8.2%
Q4 2025$241.1M+5.5%
Q3 2025$238.7M+3.2%
Q2 2025$234M+7%
Q1 2025$225.2M+4.3%
Q4 2024$228.5M+2.4%

CARG's revenue has grown year over year for nine quarters in a row: $258M last quarter, up 8.2% from the same quarter a year ago.

RIVN Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $1.3BQ1 2024: $1.2BQ2 2024: $1.2BQ3 2024: $874MQ4 2024: $1.7BQ1 2025: $1.2BQ2 2025: $1.3BQ3 2025: $1.6BQ4 2025: $1.3BQ1 2026: $1.4BQ2 2026: $1.7BQ3 2026: $2.2B
Q4 2023: $1.3BQ1 2024: $1.2BQ2 2024: $1.2BQ3 2024: $874MQ4 2024: $1.7BQ1 2025: $1.2BQ2 2025: $1.3BQ3 2025: $1.6BQ4 2025: $1.3BQ1 2026: $1.4BQ2 2026: $1.7BQ3 2026: $2.2B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$2.2B+38%
Q2 2026$1.7B+27%
Q1 2026$1.4B+11%
Q4 2025$1.3B-26%
Q3 2025$1.6B+78%
Q2 2025$1.3B+13%
Q1 2025$1.2B+3%
Q4 2024$1.7B+32%

RIVN's revenue is growing: $2.2B last quarter, up 38% from the same quarter a year ago.

CARG Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$13MQ1 2024: $23MQ2 2024: $46MQ3 2024: $46MQ4 2024: $66MQ1 2025: $66MQ2 2025: $72MQ3 2025: $70MQ4 2025: $82MQ1 2026: $69MQ2 2026: $94MQ3 2026: $80M
Q4 2023: −$13MQ1 2024: $23MQ2 2024: $46MQ3 2024: $46MQ4 2024: $66MQ1 2025: $66MQ2 2025: $72MQ3 2025: $70MQ4 2025: $82MQ1 2026: $69MQ2 2026: $94MQ3 2026: $80M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$79.8M+14%
Q2 2026$94M+31%
Q1 2026$69.5M+5.8%
Q4 2025$81.9M+25%
Q3 2025$69.8M+52%
Q2 2025$71.5M+57%
Q1 2025$65.6M+182%
Q4 2024$65.5M+$78.5M

CARG has the edge over RIVN on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

RIVN Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$1.4BQ1 2024: −$1.5BQ2 2024: −$1BQ3 2024: −$1.2BQ4 2024: $856MQ1 2025: −$526MQ2 2025: −$398MQ3 2025: −$421MQ4 2025: −$1.1BQ1 2026: −$1.1BQ2 2026: −$849MQ3 2026: −$1.1B
Q4 2023: −$1.4BQ1 2024: −$1.5BQ2 2024: −$1BQ3 2024: −$1.2BQ4 2024: $856MQ1 2025: −$526MQ2 2025: −$398MQ3 2025: −$421MQ4 2025: −$1.1BQ1 2026: −$1.1BQ2 2026: −$849MQ3 2026: −$1.1B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$1.1B-$703M
Q2 2026-$849M-$451M
Q1 2026-$1.1B-$549M
Q4 2025-$1.1B-234%
Q3 2025-$421M+$732M
Q2 2025-$398M+$639M
Q1 2025-$526M+$997M
Q4 2024$856M+$2.3B

RIVN has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$4.2B over the past year, against −$489M the year before.

CARG Total Shares

Q4 2023: 114MQ1 2024: 109MQ2 2024: 104MQ3 2024: 105MQ4 2024: 106MQ1 2025: 105MQ2 2025: 100MQ3 2025: 100MQ4 2025: 97MQ1 2026: 95MQ2 2026: 91MQ3 2026: 90M
Q4 2023: 114MQ1 2024: 109MQ2 2024: 104MQ3 2024: 105MQ4 2024: 106MQ1 2025: 105MQ2 2025: 100MQ3 2025: 100MQ4 2025: 97MQ1 2026: 95MQ2 2026: 91MQ3 2026: 90M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-1%-955K shares
1 year-9.6%-9.6M shares
3 years-21%-24.2M shares
5 years-25%-29.3M shares
Available history-21%-23.3M shares

CARG has the edge over RIVN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

RIVN Total Shares

Q4 2023: 947MQ1 2024: 978MQ2 2024: 1BQ3 2024: 1BQ4 2024: 1BQ1 2025: 1.1BQ2 2025: 1.2BQ3 2025: 1.2BQ4 2025: 1.2BQ1 2026: 1.2BQ2 2026: 1.3BQ3 2026: 1.4B
Q4 2023: 947MQ1 2024: 978MQ2 2024: 1BQ3 2024: 1BQ4 2024: 1BQ1 2025: 1.1BQ2 2025: 1.2BQ3 2025: 1.2BQ4 2025: 1.2BQ1 2026: 1.2BQ2 2026: 1.3BQ3 2026: 1.4B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+9.1%+121M shares
1 year+19%+226M shares
3 years+52%+494M shares

RIVN has 1.4B diluted shares, up 19% from a year ago.

CARG Net Leverage

Q4 2023: -4.5xQ1 2024: -3.4xQ4 2024: -9.4xQ1 2025: -3.4xQ2 2025: -1.4xQ3 2025: -0.9xQ4 2025: -0.7xQ1 2026: -0.3xQ2 2026: -0.4xQ3 2026: -0.5x
Q4 2023: -4.5xQ1 2024: -3.4xQ4 2024: -9.4xQ1 2025: -3.4xQ2 2025: -1.4xQ3 2025: -0.9xQ4 2025: -0.7xQ1 2026: -0.3xQ2 2026: -0.4xQ3 2026: -0.5x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 2026-0.5xNet Cash
Q2 2026-0.4xNet Cash
Q1 2026-0.3xNet Cash
Q4 2025-0.7xNet Cash
Q3 2025-0.9xNet Cash
Q2 2025-1.4xNet Cash
Q1 2025-3.4xNet Cash
Q4 2024-9.4xNet Cash

CARG has more cash than debt.

RIVN Net Leverage

RIVN's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.

CARG Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI53.1Neutral
Stochastic45.4Neutral

CARG's weekly RSI is 53 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 45 (neutral).

RIVN Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI41.5Neutral
Stochastic25.6Neutral

RIVN's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).

CARG PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

MetricCARGSector medianRelative
PE17x18x3.9% below
PE %24745 pts below

CARG is trading at 17x earnings, in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.

RIVN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

CARG Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$31.58.7% above
20 week MA$33.91% above
50 week MA$33.52.3% above
100 week MA$33.52.3% above
200 week MA$28.221% above

CARG has the edge over RIVN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

RIVN Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$13.33.9% below
20 week MA$15.115% below
50 week MA$15.919% below
100 week MA$14.713% below
200 week MA$15.115% below

RIVN is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 15% below its 200-week average.

CARG Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$35.7$33.7-5.7%
2021$33.7$33.6-0.4%
2022$33.6$13.5-60%
2023$13.5$24.2+79%
2024$24.2$37.1+53%
2025$37.1$38.6+4.2%
2026 YTD$38.6$34.3-11%

CARG has the edge over RIVN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

RIVN Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2021$130.0$96.8-25%
2022$96.8$19.1-80%
2023$19.1$23.5+23%
2024$23.5$13.7-42%
2025$13.7$20.9+53%
2026 YTD$20.9$12.8-39%

RIVN has finished lower in three of the last five years. It's down 39% so far in 2026.

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