CAKE
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
CAKE has the edge over RIVN overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc.
RIVN offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAKE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
CAKE's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
RIVN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
RIVN's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
CAKE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 17x | $69.55 | -35% |
| Fair | 19x | $80.53 | -24% |
| Forward | 21x | $106 | — |
| Current | 25x | $106 | — |
| Expensive | 36x | $150 | +41% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAKE's PE is in its expensive range at 25x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 21x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
RIVN PE Valuation
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAKE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAKE, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
RIVN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect RIVN's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAKE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.05 | +20% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.21 | +28% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.68 | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.41 | +6.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.06 | -4.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.30 | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.25 | +35% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.19 | +46% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.20 | +55% |
CAKE has the edge over RIVN on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
RIVN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.25 | +$0.83 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.58 | +$0.62 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.92 | +$0.77 |
| Q4 2025 | -$3.07 | +$1.62 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.08 | +$2.52 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.20 | +$2.76 |
| Q1 2025 | -$3.69 | +$2.08 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.69 | +$1.05 |
RIVN is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.25 per share over the past year, against $7.40 at its worst in late 2022.
CAKE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1B | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $1B | +7.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $978.8M | +5.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $961.6M | +4.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $907.2M | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $955.8M | +5.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $927.2M | +4% |
| Q4 2024 | $921M | +5% |
CAKE's revenue has grown year over year for 11 quarters in a row: $1B last quarter, up 14% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.3% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7.6% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.6% | 0 points |
| Q4 2025 | 3.5% | -1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 4.1% | +0.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 6.8% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 5.6% | +1.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 5.1% | +4.1 points |
CAKE has the edge over RIVN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RIVN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | +38% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | -26% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.6B | +78% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | +3% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.7B | +32% |
RIVN's revenue is growing: $2.2B last quarter, up 38% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -41% | +22 points |
| Q2 2026 | -50% | +35 points |
| Q1 2026 | -64% | -11 points |
| Q4 2025 | -65% | -27 points |
| Q3 2025 | -63% | +71 points |
| Q2 2025 | -86% | +33 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +70 points |
| Q4 2024 | -38% | +82 points |
RIVN's operating margin was −41% last quarter, up 22 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2021.
CAKE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $66.9M | +24% |
| Q2 2026 | $49.3M | +222% |
| Q1 2026 | $53.3M | +48% |
| Q4 2025 | $49.8M | -8.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $53.9M | +110% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.3M | +$16.8M |
| Q1 2025 | $36.1M | +22% |
| Q4 2024 | $54.1M | +234% |
CAKE has the edge over RIVN on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RIVN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.1B | -$703M |
| Q2 2026 | -$849M | -$451M |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | -$549M |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.1B | -234% |
| Q3 2025 | -$421M | +$732M |
| Q2 2025 | -$398M | +$639M |
| Q1 2025 | -$526M | +$997M |
| Q4 2024 | $856M | +$2.3B |
RIVN has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$4.2B over the past year, against −$489M the year before.
CAKE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +6.2% | +3M shares |
| 1 year | +5.9% | +2.9M shares |
| 3 years | +5.1% | +2.5M shares |
| 5 years | +0.7% | +360K shares |
| Available history | +16% | +6.9M shares |
CAKE has the edge over RIVN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.4M |
| Q2 2026 | $11M |
| Q1 2026 | $18.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $11.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $1.2M |
| Q2 2025 | $131,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $141.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $763,000 |
CAKE spent $43M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 70% from the year before.
RIVN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +9.1% | +121M shares |
| 1 year | +19% | +226M shares |
| 3 years | +52% | +494M shares |
RIVN has 1.4B diluted shares, up 19% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | $6M |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
CAKE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.3x | Healthy |
CAKE's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 1.4 years a year ago.
RIVN Net Leverage
RIVN's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
CAKE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 59.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 60.4 | Neutral |
CAKE's weekly RSI is 60 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).
RIVN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 25.6 | Neutral |
RIVN's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
CAKE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | CAKE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25x | 18x | 40% above |
| PE % | 72 | 47 | 25 pts above |
CAKE is trading at 25x earnings, a 40% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
RIVN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAKE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $108.9 | 2.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $102.9 | 3.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $77.5 | 37% above |
| 100 week MA | $65.7 | 62% above |
| 200 week MA | $51.0 | 108% above |
CAKE has the edge over RIVN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RIVN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $13.3 | 3.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $15.9 | 19% below |
| 100 week MA | $14.7 | 13% below |
| 200 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
RIVN is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 15% below its 200-week average.
CAKE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $38.4 | $37.2 | -3% |
| 2021 | $37.2 | $40.3 | +8.2% |
| 2022 | $40.3 | $32.1 | -20% |
| 2023 | $32.1 | $35.0 | +9.2% |
| 2024 | $35.0 | $48.0 | +37% |
| 2025 | $48.0 | $52.6 | +9.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.6 | $106.2 | +102% |
CAKE has the edge over RIVN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
RIVN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $130.0 | $96.8 | -25% |
| 2022 | $96.8 | $19.1 | -80% |
| 2023 | $19.1 | $23.5 | +23% |
| 2024 | $23.5 | $13.7 | -42% |
| 2025 | $13.7 | $20.9 | +53% |
| 2026 YTD | $20.9 | $12.8 | -39% |
RIVN has finished lower in three of the last five years. It's down 39% so far in 2026.