CAKE
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
CAKE's fundamentals are mixed, but it looks expensive: trading at 25x earnings, above its usual 19x. Analysts expect strong earnings growth, though they disagree widely on how much.
CAKE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
CAKE's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CAKE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 17x | $69.55 | -35% |
| Fair | 19x | $80.53 | -24% |
| Forward | 21x | $106 | — |
| Current | 25x | $106 | — |
| Expensive | 36x | $150 | +41% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAKE's PE is in its expensive range at 25x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 21x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
CAKE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAKE, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAKE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.05 | +20% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.21 | +28% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.68 | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.41 | +6.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.06 | -4.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.30 | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.25 | +35% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.19 | +46% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.20 | +55% |
CAKE earned $4.21 per share over the past year, up 28% from the year before.
CAKE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1B | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $1B | +7.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $978.8M | +5.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $961.6M | +4.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $907.2M | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $955.8M | +5.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $927.2M | +4% |
| Q4 2024 | $921M | +5% |
CAKE's revenue has grown year over year for 11 quarters in a row: $1B last quarter, up 14% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.3% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7.6% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.6% | 0 points |
| Q4 2025 | 3.5% | -1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 4.1% | +0.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 6.8% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 5.6% | +1.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 5.1% | +4.1 points |
CAKE's operating margin was 7.3% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
CAKE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $66.9M | +24% |
| Q2 2026 | $49.3M | +222% |
| Q1 2026 | $53.3M | +48% |
| Q4 2025 | $49.8M | -8.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $53.9M | +110% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.3M | +$16.8M |
| Q1 2025 | $36.1M | +22% |
| Q4 2024 | $54.1M | +234% |
CAKE generated $219M in free cash flow over the past year, up 37% from the year before.
CAKE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +6.2% | +3M shares |
| 1 year | +5.9% | +2.9M shares |
| 3 years | +5.1% | +2.5M shares |
| 5 years | +0.7% | +360K shares |
| Available history | +16% | +6.9M shares |
CAKE has 51M diluted shares, up 5.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.4M |
| Q2 2026 | $11M |
| Q1 2026 | $18.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $11.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $1.2M |
| Q2 2025 | $131,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $141.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $763,000 |
CAKE spent $43M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 70% from the year before.
CAKE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.3x | Healthy |
CAKE's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 1.4 years a year ago.
CAKE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 59.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 60.4 | Neutral |
CAKE's weekly RSI is 60 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).
CAKE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | CAKE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25x | 18x | 40% above |
| PE % | 72 | 47 | 25 pts above |
CAKE is trading at 25x earnings, a 40% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
CAKE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $108.9 | 2.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $102.9 | 3.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $77.5 | 37% above |
| 100 week MA | $65.7 | 62% above |
| 200 week MA | $51.0 | 108% above |
CAKE's trend is up, with a small recent dip: it's below only its 8-week average, and 108% above its 200-week average.
CAKE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $38.4 | $37.2 | -3% |
| 2021 | $37.2 | $40.3 | +8.2% |
| 2022 | $40.3 | $32.1 | -20% |
| 2023 | $32.1 | $35.0 | +9.2% |
| 2024 | $35.0 | $48.0 | +37% |
| 2025 | $48.0 | $52.6 | +9.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.6 | $106.2 | +102% |
CAKE has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's up 102% so far in 2026.