CAKE
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
CAKE has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
NKE
NIKE, Inc.
NKE has a slight edge over CAKE overall, supported by stronger valuation.
CAKE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
CAKE's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
NKE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
NKE's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
CAKE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 17x | $69.55 | -35% |
| Fair | 19x | $80.53 | -24% |
| Forward | 21x | $106 | — |
| Current | 25x | $106 | — |
| Expensive | 36x | $150 | +41% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAKE's PE is in its expensive range at 25x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 21x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
NKE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 18x | $37.76 | — |
| Cheap | 23x | $47.70 | +26% |
| Forward | 30x | $37.76 | — |
| Fair | 33x | $68.16 | +80% |
| Expensive | 47x | $97.86 | +159% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NKE has the edge over CAKE in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CAKE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
CAKE has the edge over NKE on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
NKE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Decline | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NKE's profitability to improve, but its revenue to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CAKE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.05 | +20% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.21 | +28% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.68 | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.41 | +6.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.06 | -4.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.30 | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.25 | +35% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.19 | +46% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.20 | +55% |
CAKE has the edge over NKE on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.27 | -39% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.09 | +7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.10 | -2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.51 | -50% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.70 | -48% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.95 | -44% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.16 | -42% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.01 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.24 | -5.3% |
NKE's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.09 over the past year, against $3.82 in late 2021.
CAKE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1B | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $1B | +7.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $978.8M | +5.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $961.6M | +4.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $907.2M | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $955.8M | +5.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $927.2M | +4% |
| Q4 2024 | $921M | +5% |
CAKE has the edge over NKE on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.3% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7.6% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.6% | 0 points |
| Q4 2025 | 3.5% | -1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 4.1% | +0.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 6.8% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 5.6% | +1.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 5.1% | +4.1 points |
CAKE's operating margin was 7.3% last quarter, up 3.1 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
NKE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.2B | -4.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $11B | -1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.3B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.4B | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.7B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.1B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.3B | -9.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.4B | -7.7% |
NKE's revenue fell from its 2023 peak and has held roughly level since: $11.2B last quarter, down 4.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.2% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +9.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.8% | -1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | -3.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.9% | -3.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9% | -11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.5% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -2.9 points |
NKE has the edge over CAKE on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CAKE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $66.9M | +24% |
| Q2 2026 | $49.3M | +222% |
| Q1 2026 | $53.3M | +48% |
| Q4 2025 | $49.8M | -8.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $53.9M | +110% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.3M | +$16.8M |
| Q1 2025 | $36.1M | +22% |
| Q4 2024 | $54.1M | +234% |
CAKE has the edge over NKE on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$64M | -527% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +313% |
| Q1 2026 | $284M | -83% |
| Q4 2025 | $386M | -58% |
| Q3 2025 | $15M | -95% |
| Q2 2025 | $363M | -85% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7B | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $920M | -65% |
NKE usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$64M, but it generated $2.1B over the past year.
CAKE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +6.2% | +3M shares |
| 1 year | +5.9% | +2.9M shares |
| 3 years | +5.1% | +2.5M shares |
| 5 years | +0.7% | +360K shares |
| Available history | +16% | +6.9M shares |
CAKE has 51M diluted shares, up 5.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.4M |
| Q2 2026 | $11M |
| Q1 2026 | $18.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $11.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $1.2M |
| Q2 2025 | $131,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $141.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $763,000 |
CAKE spent $43M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 70% from the year before.
NKE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +3.2M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +5.2M shares |
| 3 years | -3.8% | -59.1M shares |
| 5 years | -8.4% | -135M shares |
| Available history | -6.9% | -110M shares |
NKE has the edge over CAKE on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $20M |
| Q3 2025 | $126M |
| Q2 2025 | $199M |
| Q1 2025 | $506M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
NKE has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
CAKE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.3x | Healthy |
CAKE's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 1.4 years a year ago.
NKE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2024 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2023 | 0.1x | Very low |
NKE has the edge over CAKE on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CAKE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 59.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 60.4 | Neutral |
CAKE's weekly RSI is 60 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).
NKE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.5 | Neutral |
NKE's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
CAKE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | CAKE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25x | 18x | 40% above |
| PE % | 72 | 47 | 25 pts above |
CAKE is trading at 25x earnings, a 40% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
NKE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | NKE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 18x | 0.3% above |
| PE % | 2 | 47 | 45 pts below |
NKE has the edge over CAKE on valuation relative to its sector.
CAKE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $108.9 | 2.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $102.9 | 3.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $77.5 | 37% above |
| 100 week MA | $65.7 | 62% above |
| 200 week MA | $51.0 | 108% above |
CAKE has the edge over NKE on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NKE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $36.7 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $39.2 | 3.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $48.0 | 21% below |
| 100 week MA | $58.4 | 35% below |
| 200 week MA | $79.2 | 52% below |
NKE has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 52% below its 200-week average.
CAKE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $38.4 | $37.2 | -3% |
| 2021 | $37.2 | $40.3 | +8.2% |
| 2022 | $40.3 | $32.1 | -20% |
| 2023 | $32.1 | $35.0 | +9.2% |
| 2024 | $35.0 | $48.0 | +37% |
| 2025 | $48.0 | $52.6 | +9.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.6 | $106.2 | +102% |
CAKE has the edge over NKE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NKE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $101.6 | $141.6 | +39% |
| 2021 | $141.6 | $165.7 | +17% |
| 2022 | $165.7 | $116.3 | -30% |
| 2023 | $116.3 | $108.6 | -6.6% |
| 2024 | $108.6 | $76.4 | -30% |
| 2025 | $76.4 | $60.9 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $60.9 | $37.8 | -38% |
NKE has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 38% so far in 2026.