CAKE
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
CAKE has the edge over NIO overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger modeled upside.
NIO
NIO Inc.
NIO offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CAKE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
CAKE's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
NIO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Unavailable |
NIO's revenue is currently strong, and its profitability and cash flow are stable. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
CAKE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 17x | $69.55 | -35% |
| Fair | 19x | $80.53 | -24% |
| Forward | 21x | $106 | — |
| Current | 25x | $106 | — |
| Expensive | 36x | $150 | +41% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CAKE's PE is in its expensive range at 25x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 21x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
NIO PE Valuation
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAKE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CAKE, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NIO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect NIO's losses to shrink, with revenue growing.
CAKE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.05 | +20% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.21 | +28% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.68 | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.41 | +6.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.06 | -4.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.30 | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.25 | +35% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.19 | +46% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.20 | +55% |
CAKE has the edge over NIO on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
NIO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$0.29 | +$1.45 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.60 | +$1.16 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.06 | +$0.60 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.59 | +$0.02 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.74 | -$0.10 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.76 | +$0.06 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.66 | +$0.21 |
| Q3 2024 | -$1.61 | +$0.32 |
NIO is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.29 per share over the past year, against $1.93 at its worst in late 2023.
CAKE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1B | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $1B | +7.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $978.8M | +5.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $961.6M | +4.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $907.2M | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $955.8M | +5.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $927.2M | +4% |
| Q4 2024 | $921M | +5% |
CAKE's revenue has grown year over year for 11 quarters in a row: $1B last quarter, up 14% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.3% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7.6% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.6% | 0 points |
| Q4 2025 | 3.5% | -1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 4.1% | +0.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 6.8% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 5.6% | +1.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 5.1% | +4.1 points |
CAKE has the edge over NIO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NIO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.8B | +69% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.8B | +112% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.2B | +76% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.3B | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.9B | +9% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.8B | +21% |
| Q4 2024 | $3B | +15% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.8B | -2.1% |
NIO's revenue has grown year over year for seven quarters in a row: $4.8B last quarter, up 69% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -2.1% | +24 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1.2% | +52 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3% | +33 points |
| Q3 2025 | -16% | +12 points |
| Q2 2025 | -26% | +4 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -31% | +8.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | -28% | -2.6 points |
NIO's operating margin was −2.1% last quarter, up 24 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CAKE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $66.9M | +24% |
| Q2 2026 | $49.3M | +222% |
| Q1 2026 | $53.3M | +48% |
| Q4 2025 | $49.8M | -8.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $53.9M | +110% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.3M | +$16.8M |
| Q1 2025 | $36.1M | +22% |
| Q4 2024 | $54.1M | +234% |
CAKE has the edge over NIO on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NIO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0 | +$2.1B |
| Q1 2026 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2025 | $0 | +$391.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.1B | +$73.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2024 | -$391.3M | -386% |
| Q2 2024 | -$2.2B | +$337.9M |
NIO's free cash flow was $0 over the past year, against −$2.5B the year before.
CAKE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +6.2% | +3M shares |
| 1 year | +5.9% | +2.9M shares |
| 3 years | +5.1% | +2.5M shares |
| 5 years | +0.7% | +360K shares |
| Available history | +16% | +6.9M shares |
CAKE has the edge over NIO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.4M |
| Q2 2026 | $11M |
| Q1 2026 | $18.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $11.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $1.2M |
| Q2 2025 | $131,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $141.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $763,000 |
CAKE spent $43M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 70% from the year before.
NIO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.6% | +15.6M shares |
| 1 year | +12% | +267M shares |
| 3 years | +51% | +844M shares |
| 5 years | +60% | +933M shares |
| Available history | +143% | +1.5B shares |
NIO has 2.5B diluted shares, up 12% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
NIO hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
CAKE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.3x | Healthy |
CAKE's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 1.4 years a year ago.
NIO Net Leverage
NIO's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
CAKE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 59.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 60.4 | Neutral |
CAKE's weekly RSI is 60 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).
NIO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 30.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.9 | Oversold |
NIO's weekly RSI is 31 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
CAKE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | CAKE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25x | 18x | 40% above |
| PE % | 72 | 47 | 25 pts above |
CAKE is trading at 25x earnings, a 40% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
NIO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CAKE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $108.9 | 2.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $102.9 | 3.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $77.5 | 37% above |
| 100 week MA | $65.7 | 62% above |
| 200 week MA | $51.0 | 108% above |
CAKE has the edge over NIO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NIO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.36 | 9.2% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.01 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $4.81 | 37% below |
| 100 week MA | $4.85 | 37% below |
| 200 week MA | $6.03 | 49% below |
NIO is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 49% below its 200-week average.
CAKE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $38.4 | $37.2 | -3% |
| 2021 | $37.2 | $40.3 | +8.2% |
| 2022 | $40.3 | $32.1 | -20% |
| 2023 | $32.1 | $35.0 | +9.2% |
| 2024 | $35.0 | $48.0 | +37% |
| 2025 | $48.0 | $52.6 | +9.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.6 | $106.2 | +102% |
CAKE has the edge over NIO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NIO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $2.42 | $45.8 | +1791% |
| 2021 | $45.8 | $30.5 | -33% |
| 2022 | $30.5 | $11.0 | -64% |
| 2023 | $11.0 | $9.07 | -17% |
| 2024 | $9.07 | $4.48 | -51% |
| 2025 | $4.48 | $5.10 | +14% |
| 2026 YTD | $5.10 | $3.05 | -40% |
NIO's yearly returns have swung widely, from +1791% in 2020 to −64% in 2022. It's down 40% so far in 2026.