BWIN
The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.
BWIN offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over BWIN overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
BWIN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Weak | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
BWIN's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability is weak. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like BWIN.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
BWIN PE Valuation
BWIN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
BWIN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BWIN, with profitability improving.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
BWIN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.37 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$1.41 | -$0.98 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.05 | -$0.76 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.68 | -$0.16 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.50 | -$0.11 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.43 | +$0.22 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.29 | +$0.52 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.52 | +$0.41 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.39 | +$1.11 |
BWIN lost $1.41 per share over the past year, and its loss has widened in each of the last five quarters.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over BWIN on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
BWIN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $480.3M | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $492.9M | +30% |
| Q1 2026 | $532.2M | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $347.3M | +5.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $365.4M | +7.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $378.8M | +11% |
| Q1 2025 | $413.4M | +8.7% |
BWIN's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since early 2025: $480M last quarter, up 31% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -9% | -9.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | -1.7% | -9.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | -19% | -33 points |
| Q4 2025 | -3.8% | -2.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 0.9% | -3.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 7.4% | +2.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 14% | +4.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | -1.7% | N/A |
BWIN's operating margin was −9% last quarter, down 9.9 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2024.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over BWIN on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over BWIN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BWIN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $39.2M | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $30.4M | +$58.5M |
| Q1 2026 | -$18.7M | +$54.2M |
| Q4 2025 | -$84K | -102% |
| Q3 2025 | $32.2M | +$40.2M |
| Q2 2025 | -$28.1M | -140% |
| Q1 2025 | -$72.9M | -$67.7M |
| Q4 2024 | $4.3M | -71% |
BWIN has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
BWIN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +168K shares |
| 1 year | +35% | +24.3M shares |
| 3 years | +53% | +32.4M shares |
| 5 years | +100% | +46.5M shares |
| Available history | +368% | +73.1M shares |
BWIN has 93M diluted shares, up 35% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $79.9M |
| Q1 2026 | $47M |
| Q3 2021 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over BWIN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
BWIN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 7.8x | High |
| Q3 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 7.5x | High |
BWIN has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
BWIN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 63.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 86.7 | Overbought |
BWIN's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 87 (overbought).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
BWIN PE vs Financial Services Sector
BWIN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
BWIN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $31.9 | 0.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $30.4 | 5.4% above |
| 50 week MA | $25.4 | 26% above |
| 100 week MA | $30.9 | 3.6% above |
| 200 week MA | $30.7 | 4.3% above |
BWIN has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
BWIN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $15.6 | $30.3 | +94% |
| 2021 | $30.3 | $34.8 | +15% |
| 2022 | $34.8 | $26.0 | -25% |
| 2023 | $26.0 | $24.0 | -7.5% |
| 2024 | $24.0 | $38.8 | +62% |
| 2025 | $38.8 | $25.6 | -34% |
| 2026 YTD | $25.6 | $32.0 | +25% |
BWIN has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.